Bitcoin Capital Support Regime

Is Bitcoin growing on real capital inflows - or just on repricing?

What is this?

Bitcoin Capital Support Regime is a regime model that shows not just the direction of price, but the quality of that move. It answers two questions:

1. What market regime is Bitcoin in right now?

2. How much is that regime actually supported by capital?

The model compares two things internally: how market cap changes and how realized cap changes. The first reflects market repricing, the second reflects capital that has genuinely settled in the network at new prices. On this basis, the model builds a Score from -2 to +2 and separately calculates Support Spread 30d - a measure of the regime’s internal strength.

The core idea is simple: price can rise without healthy internal support. That is why this model does not ask “is BTC up or down” - it asks: how well is the move or decline confirmed by real capital? That is exactly what makes it useful not only for on-chain analysis, but also for practical positioning within the cycle.

Two layers of the model

Score is the first layer. It shows the market regime: trend growth, late bull phase, transition phase, rebound scenario, or full structural contraction. This is not a scale of “the higher, the better.” It is a set of distinct market states.

Support Spread 30d is the second layer. It measures the difference between the change in realized cap and market cap in a smoothed 30-day form. If the spread holds better, the move is genuinely backed by capital. If the spread drops deep into negative territory, price may still look fine but the internal support is already weakening. Simply put: Score tells you what kind of market this is, and Support Spread 30d shows how healthy it is on the inside.

Interpretation regimes

Structural labels can be kept for internal model logic, but user-facing regimes are more useful for investors, because they align better with the backtest.

The most important finding from the backtest