Bitcoin Strategy & Market Analysis

🔥 W1 February 2026

GM/GN.

In Friday’s issue of Adler AM I wrote about the market still carrying the risk of incomplete deleveraging. Yesterday we saw the second wave of long position liquidations. In today’s Adler Insight Premium issue, in the Deep Research section, I will analyze in detail what is happening in the derivatives market and how this may affect the price in the near term.

But before we move on to the analysis, I want to tell you about upcoming changes to our Substack. As you know, we conducted a large-scale survey on our product lineup. You shared your expectations, we carefully studied and incorporated them. As a result, we will soon implement a number of improvements that will help you navigate the Bitcoin market faster and more accurately.

What Will Change?

We are launching Weekly Engine - an analytical report built on 7 layers of analysis that generates weekly signals for the Bitcoin market.

1. Core Layer 1 generates two basic signals - Bear / Bull, determining the market cycle phase, as well as an Action plan for each week in the form of clear signals: SELL, BUY, BUY DIP, HOLD, WAIT, REDUCE, EXIT.

2. Layer 2-7 analyze the market and transmit confirming signals to Layer 1, based on which the final Action plan for the investor is formed.

The main task of Weekly Engine is to buy Bitcoin cheap and sell high. Preliminary backtests of the system on 11 years of history show a 10x return outperformance compared to classic Buy & Hold.

Weekly Engine correctly identifies market cycle endings and provides clear entry and exit signals. For example, on September 28, 2025, the system registered a SELL signal and a 100% position reduction.

At the end of 2022, Weekly Engine identified the market state as early Bull and showed a BUY signal for 100% of available volume. You can open your TradingView and see what happened to the market on these dates to evaluate the effect yourself.

Weekly Engine can identify various market states and displays key markers weekly: Cycle Pivot, Panic Selling, Black Swan, Bear/Bull Confirm, Late Bull/Bear, Downtrend, Capitulation, Euphoria, Correction. Based on these, the system generates Action signals. For example, in bull market conditions when a Black Swan marker appears, you will receive a BUY DIP signal with a 20% exposure increase, or in the late stage of a bull cycle when receiving a market Euphoria signal, Weekly Engine will issue a signal to reduce part of the exposure.

We will tell you more about Weekly Engine in the Adler Education section. For now, here is what investors should expect in the updated Substack.

1. Adler AM - daily briefs on the Bitcoin market delivered to your email + a 4-5 minute podcast in debate format. This is your daily morning ritual: about 3 minutes of reading to stay informed about key events. Access requires a separate free subscription through my personal website.

2. Weekly Engine - a weekly market report with main signals, a brief summary for each layer, and an additional Deep Research block when a detailed explanation of the current market situation is needed. This is the main product that analyzes the market for you based on 7 layers of data, including modern machine learning methods and artificial intelligence algorithms.

3. Adler Education - a separate weekly newsletter that will include SQL of the Week and educational materials for those who want to improve their knowledge in data analysis and on-chain analytics.

Now about the old products.

Adler Insight Light becomes part of one of the 7 analytical layers and ceases to be published as a standalone product. Bitcoin Strategy also loses relevance, as all models and data previously used in the strategy will be available within Weekly Engine. We are keeping the Deep Research section - where I will analyze cause-and-effect relationships of events that occurred in the market during the week.

Most importantly, Weekly Engine will be published here for paid subscribers starting next week. It makes sense to get an annual subscription, as it provides a significant discount. We have not yet fixed the Weekly Engine publication schedule. Publication will be either on Sunday or Monday - this is due to technical features of processing one of the 7 analytical layers, which requires receiving complete week-closing data.

After launching the separate Weekly Engine web application, access to it will only be available through the email linked to your paid Adler Insight Premium Substack subscription. The estimated release date for the application is February-March. We are trying to move quickly, but it should be noted that this is a technically complex product, and if we rate the complexity of the Bitcoin WhitePaper at 10 points, we rate Weekly Engine at 6 points.

That’s all for now, let’s figure out what happened in the market this week and what to expect next week.

Bitcoin Strategy & Market Analysis - W1 February 2026

Bitcoin Strategy

Main Components

Regime (Main Filter)