Bitcoin Strategy & Q4 2025 Market Outlook

W2 November 2025

Hi, everyone!

This issue examines the critical structural transformation of the Bitcoin market at a moment when classic halving models give their first ⚡️End Bull Cycle alert, but the institutional reality of the ETF era completely changes the rules of the game. We conduct deep quantitative analysis through two exclusive models: Adler Risk Thermometer and Adler Valuation Band.

The research contains three specific scenarios for Q4 with probabilities and target levels, critical macro-reversal triggers for monitoring, and precise zones for tactical position management. At a moment when the market completes a massive capital rotation (417K BTC distribution from LTH in a month) and transitions from sell-off phase to consolidation, this research gives you a quantitative framework for navigating the most uncertain quarter of the cycle - when the old model breaks down and a new one is just forming.