Hello everyone!
Today’s issue is dedicated to the market regime change that occurred on November 14, 2025 - a moment you can read more about in this note. We’ll examine why I deliberately ignored early on-chain metric signals and why exactly November 14 provided confirmation that can be trusted.
We’ll dive into on-chain and market data to understand how deep the rabbit hole goes and assess what to expect from the market in the coming weeks. In this report, we’ll review what the models indicate after confirming the phase shift and attempt to answer the main question: has a bear cycle begun, or is this a deep pullback within a bull market?
In conclusion, we’ll update the Valuation Band model, determine Bitcoin’s current fair value, discuss risks upon breaking the Fair Value level, and update our view on Q4 2025, forming the final macro conclusion that the models provide.
