Bitcoin Trends – W4 April 2025

Bitcoin is gathering strength before surging toward the $100,000 mark.

TL;DR:

Falling yields, rising inflation expectations, and new inflows into spot ETFs create a favorable environment for the first cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is consolidating above $90K and gathering liquidity for a potential surge to $100K, while trade risks remain the only serious barrier.

Macroeconomics over the past week

Priority: High

1. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds fell to 4.24%

Conclusion: The decrease of approximately 3 basis points on Friday (and almost 4 basis points on Thursday) is driven by expectations of trade war de-escalation: reports emerged about China possibly suspending its 125% tariff on several American goods (although negotiations are officially denied), and Trump confirmed that dialogue continues. Additional support for bonds comes from the market pricing in three Fed rate cuts by the end of the year and the first one in June, while statements from officials (Waller and Mester) about readiness to ease policy under tariff pressure strengthen these expectations.

2. The UMich Consumer Sentiment Index was revised upward to 52.2, but reached its lowest level since July 2022

Conclusion: The revision from 50.8 to 52.2 did not change the downward trend - sentiment has been falling for the fourth consecutive month due to trade uncertainty and inflation risks. The expectations component fell to 47.3 (lowest since July 2022), while annual inflation expectations soared to 6.5% (highest since 1981) and long-term expectations rose to 4.4%.

Priority: Moderate

1. Week ahead: corporate reports and key macroeconomic data

Conclusion: The focus will be on the development of US-China negotiations, quarterly reports from Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and others, as well as key economic indicators: preliminary US GDP estimate for Q1 (expected to slow to +0.4%), employment report, PCE data, and ISM Manufacturing PMI. In Europe, flash estimates of eurozone GDP and inflation will be released, the Bank of Japan will likely maintain its rate, China will publish PMI, and Australia will release inflation data.

Conclusions

This week, bond yields remained under pressure amid hopes for de-escalation of the trade conflict and market expectations for Fed policy easing. Consumer sentiment continues to decline amid tariff uncertainty and rising inflation expectations. In the coming week, key drivers will be trade negotiations, corporate earnings season results, and the release of important macroeconomic data in the US, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region.

Stock market over the past week

Priority: High

1. Fourth consecutive session of US stock growth

Conclusion: The S&P 500 rose by 0.7%, Nasdaq added 1.1%, and the Dow gained 20 points, supported by strengthening Big Tech and hopes for trade policy easing.

2. Ongoing trade uncertainty

Conclusion: Trump's proposal of 50% tariffs as a "complete victory" increases pressure on markets, while Beijing's subsequent denials regarding negotiations only partially offset the positive effect of exempting some American goods from duties.

3. Key corporate movements

• Alphabet +1.5% after exceeding profit forecasts, announcing its first dividend, and launching a $70 billion share buyback program.

• Tesla +9.8% following the announcement of new rules for self-driving cars.

• Intel −7% due to weak revenue forecast.

• T-Mobile −11% due to slowing subscriber growth.

Conclusion: Technology leaders maintain leading positions, while companies with slowing fundamentals face corrections.

Priority: Moderate

1. Weekly index dynamics

Conclusion: Over the week, the S&P 500 gained 4%, Nasdaq - 6%, and Dow - 2%, reflecting general optimism and capital flow into riskier assets.

2. Week ahead: "Magnificent Seven" reports

Conclusion: Next week, Amazon, Apple, and Meta will publish quarterly results - their figures will set the tone for the market and may increase volatility.

Conclusions

US stocks show sustainable growth amid strengthening Big Tech and hopes for de-escalation of the trade conflict. However, volatility risks remain due to tariff uncertainty. Key corporate reports next week will be the main drivers of further dynamics.

The decline in Treasury yields and the market actively pricing in three Fed rate cuts by year-end are easing financial conditions: the real rate is again entering a "comfortable" zone for bitcoin, weakening the dollar and reducing the opportunity cost of holding capital in risk-on assets. Simultaneously, the surge in inflation expectations (6.5% YoY over a one-year horizon) brings back the "digital gold" narrative - some institutional investors are already using BTC as a hedge for long duration positions in bonds. If rhetoric about tariffs remains more tough than effective, and the market continues to bet on future policy easing, bitcoin will have a window to test new highs: a combination of decreasing real rates and rising inflation expectations with accelerating inflows into ETFs and on-chain accumulation.

In parallel, the Big Tech rally signals that risk appetite in the "growth + innovation" ecosystem is recovering, strengthening the positive correlation between Nasdaq and BTC, especially before the release of Apple/Meta/Amazon reports. Strong figures from the "seven" could catalyze cross-buying in digital assets, while possible disappointments would add volatility but unlikely disrupt the bullish trend as long as the yield curve and Fed expectations move toward easing.

Important news of the past week

Priority: High

1. Federal Reserve System cancels cryptocurrency recommendations

   Conclusion: The Fed is ending preliminary approval for banks and transitioning to standard supervisory processes, signaling growing confidence in crypto operations and reducing barriers for integration with traditional banking.

2. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins calls for clear cryptocurrency regulation

   Conclusion: The promise of cooperation with the Trump administration to develop a rational legal framework creates hope for the appearance of long-awaited clear rules that could expand the inflow of institutional investments.

3. BlackRock's IBIT receives record inflow of $621 million since the end of January

   Conclusion: The $621 million inflow into IBIT was the largest since the end of January, with the company currently holding 582,414 BTC.

4. MicroStrategy accumulates another 6,556 BTC for $555 million (total 538,200 BTC)

   Conclusion: The continuous accumulation strategy of bitcoin pool shares demonstrates the long-term optimism of founder Michael Saylor, although increasing exposure raises the company's sensitivity to market volatility.

Priority: Moderate

1. Metaplanet reaches 5,000 BTC after $13.6 million purchase

   Conclusion: The public Asian holder continues to build its position, approaching the goal of 10,000 BTC.

2. PayPal

• Coinbase and PayPal expand partnership to stimulate PYUSD usage. Zero fees for PYUSD conversion will lower entry barriers for new users and encourage active use of PYUSD in everyday payments.

• PayPal announces 3.7% yield on PYUSD balances. PYUSD holders in PayPal and Venmo apps will receive a yield of 3.7% per year, which is accrued daily and paid monthly.

Conclusions

This week, key trends were regulatory changes and continued institutional accumulation of bitcoin. New inflows into spot ETFs and simultaneous large purchases by MicroStrategy will stimulate Bitcoin growth.

Macro analysis of Bitcoin trading week

1. BTC/USD Pair Analysis

• Current price: ~$94.2K

• Local minimum: $85.02K

• Local maximum: $95.89K

Trend

This week, the price broke out of the previous consolidation range and began an accelerated upward impulse: volumes sharply increased with the breakout of the $90K level, then gradually decreased in the light consolidation phase at $94K. Bears failed to recapture the $90K mark during retests, indicating the stability of the bullish trend and preparation for the next upward movement.

Conclusions

• Key resistance: $96K – a sustained breakout with increasing volumes could open the path to $100K.

• Local support: $90K – holding this level maintains bullish sentiment in the short term.

• Strong base support: $74.4K – still the main level for assessing the depth of potential corrections and the point for reviewing long-term strategy.

2. Options Analysis

• Max Pain Price: $93,000

• Expiration date: May 2, 2025

Market structure

• Predominance of Call options:
  Green bars are concentrated at strikes of $100K-$110K, with the greatest interest in the $105K-$110K range. Compared to last week, we see an increase in volumes in this zone - bulls are actively hedging growth above $95K.

• Put options:
  Red bars dominate at strikes of $65K-$85K, with peak interest at $65K-$75K. Put volumes at $80K-$85K slightly decreased, indicating a shift in protective bets to lower ranges.

Comparative analysis with the previous week

• Max Pain change:
  The Max Pain level rose from $85K to $93K, reflecting a shift in the balance of options players' interests toward higher prices.

• Volume dynamics:
  Significant increase in Call volumes at strikes above $95K, especially in the $100K-$110K range. Simultaneously, Put activity at strikes of $65K-$75K decreased, while at $80K-$85K it remained moderate.

Forecast

• Possible growth:
  Maintaining support around $88K and further increasing Call volumes above $95K could lead to testing the $96K-$98K zone, and with a strong breakout - to the $100K mark.

• Correction risks:
  Breaking support at $88K with increasing Put volumes could quickly return the price to $85K, where the main defense of bears is concentrated.

Bitcoin Market Data Analysis

1. Network Hashrate:

• Previous Week: 851,516,036,903 EH/s

• This Week: 814,759,948,980 EH/s

• Change: 🔴 −4.32%

• Comment: The slight decrease in hashrate may be related to scheduled maintenance and difficulty fluctuations, but the long-term trend remains upward, confirming network security.

2. Number of Active Wallets (7d):

• Previous Week: 8,268,776

• This Week: 7,724,527

• Change: 🔴 −6.58%

• Comment: The reduction in the number of active wallets indicates a decrease in transactional activity, reduced holder activity lowers selling pressure.

3. Transfer Volume (7d):

• Previous Week: 3,728,313 BTC

• This Week: 4,355,272 BTC

• Change: 🟢 +16.82%

• Comment: Significant growth in transfer volume indicates increased speculative activity and renewed interest in moving coins, essentially this creates selling pressure, but BTC/USD pair analysis shows that demand is absorbing current supply.

4. Market Price:

• Previous Week: $84,817.51

• This Week: $94,330.77

• Change: 🟢 +11.22%

• Comment: Substantial price increase reflects the dominance of bullish sentiment in the market and increased demand for BTC.

5. Market Capitalization:

• Previous Week: $1,687,938,636,883

• This Week: $1,879,595,545,082

• Change: 🟢 +11.35%

• Comment: The increase in market capitalization corresponds to price growth and shows the inflow of new liquidity into the ecosystem.

6. BTC Exchange Reserves:

• Previous Week: 2,551,317 BTC

• This Week: 2,490,612 BTC

• Change: 🔴 −2.38%

• Comment: Withdrawal of coins from exchanges indicates a decrease in holders' readiness to sell their coins.

Conclusions:

1. Bullish impulse: significant price and transfer volume growth indicates increased demand and a new wave of the bullish trend.

2. Accumulation: BTC outflow from exchanges confirms investors' desire to hold coins, which could become the foundation for further growth.

On-chain metrics

Bitcoin Valuation & Earnings decomposition

Key metrics for W4 April 2025

• BTC price: $94,510

• YoY True MVRV: – 8.98%

• YoY Realized Price: + 61.82%

• YoY Total Return: + 53.61%

1. Foundation > speculation
   Realized Price is growing 7 times faster than the MVRV multiplier is changing (-9%). This means that long-term holders have increased the price base more than the market has raised the price — a healthy cycle signal.

2. Compression of overvaluation = room to run
   Negative YoY MVRV shows that even at $95K, the market is trading cheaper relative to its fundamental value than a year ago. In previous cycles, such a "going negative" preceded the next growth impulse.

3. Halving already priced in, but not exhausted
   On the eve of the April halving, the block subsidy was cut in half, but YoY Total Return is still > 50%. The network compensates for the emission drop with growth in fundamental metrics - the "digital-gold + earnings" model persists.

4. The market has transitioned from euphoria phase to "mature bull trend" phase
   – No explosive MVRV → no overheated crowd.
   – High Realized Price growth → capitulations and deep pullbacks not expected yet.
   – Total return > 50% year-to-year remains attractive compared to traditional assets.

What this means for holders?

• Long horizon: indicators favor continuing "buy-and-hold" position accumulation - fundamentals dominate.

• Tactical entries: negative YoY MVRV provides an argument for buying on dips < $90K, as long as the multiplier remains negative.

• Monitoring: key risk - if YoY Realized Price slows to < 40% y/y, and MVRV returns to > +20% y/y: this would indicate new overheating.

Summary: the Bitcoin market remains in a bullish trend, but the driving force is not short-term euphoria, but sustainable growth in the network's base value. Speculative overvaluation has acted as a "fuse," leaving room for further upside without overheating multipliers.

Bitcoin Realized Price by Inter-Cycle Cohort Age

The Bitcoin market has exited the "euphoria" phase and transitioned to a healthy consolidation stage within the bull cycle. The short-term realized price (< 1 month) is now ~5% lower than the average price of the 6-month cohort, indicating a decrease in speculative premium: new coins are entering at a lower cost basis than most short-term holders. Meanwhile, 143 days have passed since the last dead-cross, and approximately 5-6 weeks remain until the "average" 180-day mark, when the market accumulates "fuel" before the next impulse.

Such a relationship between the lines was observed in accumulation phases of past cycles: price drifts above both RPs while the foundation (growth of 6-month RP) catches up with quotes. If the 1-month RP returns above the 6-month RP, this will confirm demand revival and open the way for acceleration toward $110K.

Overall, the absence of overheating and the negative spread between RP lines leave room for the market to continue its bullish trend. It's reasonable for investors to maintain base positions, buying on pullbacks to the 6-month RP zone of $92K, while simultaneously tracking a possible down-cross as a key risk.

Signals

Conclusion

The decline in 10-year Treasury yields to 4.24% with three Fed rate cuts priced in by the market has sharply eased financial conditions: the real rate is again moving into negative territory, the dollar is losing ground, and UMich inflation expectations jumped to 6.5%—the highest since 1981. The White House’s trade rhetoric about 50% tariffs remains more of a headline factor: the first signals of easing from China and the EU dampen the risk premium and redirect capital flows to liquidity-benefiting assets.

Big Tech and crypto are fueled by the same source. The S&P 500 recorded its fourth consecutive green session on Alphabet and Tesla reports, while liquidity transfers directly to bitcoin, with a fresh inflow of $621 million into IBIT and MicroStrategy’s purchase of 6,556 BTC. BTC confidently holds $90K, Max Pain has shifted to $93K, and options are hedging for a move up to $100K. The key risk is new tariff escalation, until this materializes, the momentum remains with “digital gold.”

Forecast

Investment recommendations: 🟢 BUY (Strong Buy)

For more details about the rating, you can visit this link: https://adlerinsight.com/Adler_Insight_Rating.pdf

Good luck in the upcoming trading week!
AAJ

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Disclaimer:

This material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities, digital assets, or other financial instruments. The information presented in this report is considered reliable, however, its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any investment decisions are made by the investor independently, taking into account personal financial circumstances and, if necessary, after consultation with a qualified professional. The author and affiliated parties may hold positions in the assets mentioned in this report. The author and publisher accept no responsibility for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this information.

Risks:

High volatility may lead to sharp fluctuations in value, adversely affecting investors' portfolios. Significant price swings may reduce the attractiveness of BTC to institutional investors, especially in the derivatives segment (futures, options). Potential tightening of regulatory requirements by governments and central banks may restrict access to BTC markets and reduce liquidity. Issues with custodial services, centralized exchanges, and hacking incidents could undermine confidence in the asset and negatively impact liquidity.