Bitcoin Trends – W4.2 August 2025

The week passed in "repair" mode: macro data and yields restrain risk appetite, derivatives show seller advantage, on-chain background is neutral-weak, price is pressed to the lower Bollinger Band.

Macroeconomics for the past week

Priority: High

• US: Core PCE 0.3% m/m; 2.9% y/y (July)
  Conclusion: inflation slightly accelerated. The market still prices in a 25 bp Fed rate cut in September, but the probability of a deeper series of cuts has decreased, market sensitivity to price data has increased.

• US: Personal spending +0.5% m/m (July)
  Conclusion: consumer supports growth, primarily through durable goods. This helps GDP but maintains pressure on services inflation.

• US: Q2 GDP revised up to 3.3% (annualized rate)
  Conclusion: economic activity above initial estimates, reducing urgency for rapid easing policy steps.

• US: Trade deficit in goods $103.6 billion (July)
  Conclusion: import surge, partly due to preemptive inventory building ahead of possible tariffs, worsens foreign trade contribution to GDP and raises risks for importer margins.

• UST-10Y yield 4.23% after PCE release
  Conclusion: yields rose on more persistent core PCE, cost of capital for rate-sensitive segments increased slightly.

• Gold…