Bitcoin vs Macro Risk Score

SQL of the Week 021

When does macro have the right to put on-chain on pause?

Bitcoin vs Macro Risk Score - a model that translates three key macro variables (DXY, 10Y US Treasury Yield, VIX) into a single numerical score from 0 to 100 and determines when the macro environment takes priority over on-chain structure.

On-chain metrics describe Bitcoin’s internal state: who’s holding, who’s selling, how far price has detached from cost basis. But on-chain doesn’t see what’s happening outside: a Fed pivot, carry trade unwinding, a dollar liquidity shock. All of this can temporarily suppress even a perfect on-chain setup.

The core idea: on-chain tells you where Bitcoin is structurally. Macro tells you whether that structure can express itself right now.

The model doesn’t replace on-chain. It solves one specific task: determine whether a macro override is active - a state where the external liquidity environment temporarily suppresses the market’s internal structure. We covered this in detail in the latest issue of Decision Architecture for Bitcoin, and today, based on that lesson, we’ll break down the ready-made Macro Risk Score model.