Cycle Radar - a new block in Decision Terminal

DECISION TERMINAL v.1.7

With the 1.7 update, a third tab appeared in the terminal - Cycle Radar. This is a separate analytical layer that answers one question:

Where is Bitcoin in the cycle right now?

Why this matters

Cycle Radar analyzes on-chain metrics and brings them together into a single map: where we are in the cycle, how well that is confirmed, and what is driving the current phase.

Why this matters: the same -20% drawdown can be a FUD shakeout in a healthy bull market, a real bottom after capitulation, or a distribution break after the peak. MQS and Risk On/Off do not distinguish between these scenarios. Cycle Radar does.

The rule is simple: if Cycle Radar shows FALLING KNIFE or DISTRIBUTION BREAK - do not step into longs, even if MQS shows IN PLAY. Cycle context matters more than the tactical signal.

How to read the screen

Main panel

Cycle Radar - June 10, 2026. At the top of the screen there are eight cards.

Left card - CYCLE REGIME

CYCLE REGIME
FALLING KNIFE
SCORE 2026-06-03 · PRICE 2026-06-10

This is the main verdict. The cycle regime is determined by the combination of all engines. Not by a single indicator, but by the intersection of bottom structure, capitulation, peak risk, stress, and conflict.

All possible regimes:

Below the panel is the line: RADAR FALLING KNIFE · TERMINAL BEAR · RISK RISK OFF · ALIGNED

The terminal’s three systems are aligned: Radar sees a falling knife, Terminal is in a bearish phase, and Risk Off is confirmed. ALIGNED means all three layers point in the same direction. That strengthens the signal.

The cards on the right - key metrics

BTC         MVRV      30D DD     STRESS    BOTTOM SC   TOP SC    CAPITULATION   CYCLE POS
$61,732     1.24      19.8%      87        68          16        92             24

Let’s break down each one:

BTC $61,732 - the current price.

MVRV 1.24 - the ratio of market value to realized value. A reading of 1.24 means the market is only 24% above aggregate cost basis. Historically, this is a deep value zone, but by itself it is not a bottom signal.

30D DD 19.8% - the drawdown from the 30-day high. Nearly -20% - already meaningful pressure.

STRESS 87 - a stress score of 87 out of 100. That is a high level. Fear & Greed, drawdown, trend stress, ETF outflows, and the Coinbase discount all come together into one picture: the market is under pressure. When stress moves above 55, the fear interpretation is activated - the system begins to distinguish the nature of that fear.

BOTTOM SC 68 - the bottom structure score. 68 out of 100 is a strong zone. The market is cheap on valuation, LTH are accumulating supply, and ETF demand has not disappeared completely. But this is a stock metric: it says the bottom structure is forming, not that the bottom has already been reached.

TOP SC 16 - the peak risk score. 16 out of 100 is close to zero. Distribution, froth, and cycle timing exhaustion are not dominant right now. The market is far from the peak zone.

CAPITULATION 92 - a capitulation score of 92 out of 100. Extremely high. STH are realizing losses, and underwater supply has risen sharply. This is an active surrender flow.

CYCLE POS 24 - cycle position from 0 to 100, where 0 is the bottom and 100 is the peak. A reading of 24 suggests the cycle is closer to the bottom zone. But this gauge cannot be read in isolation. Next to it are edge and conflict scores, which determine whether this number can be trusted.

Stance block

STANCE        stress without confirmed bottom
WATCHING      whether valuation and structure reset enough for a bottom confirmation

These are the two lines that translate all the scores into one decision:

• STANCE - the current diagnosis: stress is present, but the bottom is not confirmed.

• WATCHING - what the system is watching next: whether valuation and structure have reset enough to confirm a bottom.

At the bottom: 6d in state · typ ~2d - the system has been in the current regime for 6 days, while the typical duration of this state is around 2 days. A prolonged regime is additional context.

Regime Timeline

A full-screen chart: Bitcoin with color-coded cycle regimes across the full history.

Each vertical bar is one day, colored by the current regime:

What this says today:

The current moment, marked as NOW, is colored purple - FALLING KNIFE. The chart shows that purple zones have historically aligned with periods of continued decline. The median 60-day forward return from FALLING KNIFE is -8.25%, and the positive rate is only 39.82%. This is not a zone where you should rush to buy.

In the legend, each regime is shown with its historical positive rate - the share of days with a positive 60-day forward return. BOTTOM: 67.86%. ACCUMULATION: 64.52%. FALLING KNIFE: 39.82%. This is historical context, not a forecast.

By clicking the legend badges, you can disable individual regimes and highlight only the zones you want to study on the chart.

Historical Returns + AI Analysis

The lower block consists of two panels.

Left table - HISTORICAL 60D RETURNS · AFTER STATE · FULL HISTORY

This table shows: if the system classified a day as a given regime, what historically happened to price over the following 60 days.

How to read vs HODL: MID CYCLE is the baseline. All other regimes are compared against it. For example, FALLING KNIFE: -27.0 vs HODL means that entering in this regime historically produced a result 27 points worse than simply holding. BOTTOM: +1.1 means a small edge, but with a higher positive rate.

Important: this is descriptive statistics, not a forecast. The forward return columns show historical context, not the probability of repetition.

Right panel - AI ANALYSIS

Cycle Radar is in FALLING_KNIFE: stress without confirmed bottom. Bottom score 
is 67.7, top risk is 16.1, and stress is 86.6. That score mix points to a 
cycle-context read driven by current stress and structure, rather than a fully 
resolved transition. Scores are as of 2026-06-03, while price is updated through 
2026-06-10. Watch whether valuation and structure reset enough for a bottom 
confirmation. A stronger read would require the score mix to improve, while 
deterioration would come from weaker structure or heavier stress. This is a 
cycle-state read, not a price forecast or trade signal.

AI Analysis describes the current phase. It does not invent metrics and does not add outside context. Inside it are three blocks:

1. The verdict with the numbers - the regime, the key scores, and what is driving them.

2. What to watch next - the specific conditions for improvement or deterioration.

3. Disclaimer - this is a cycle-state read, not a forecast or a trade signal.

Five engines under the hood

Cycle Radar is not a single oscillator in the style of “0 = bottom, 100 = peak”. It is five independent engines, and each one answers its own question.

Bottom Structure (BOTTOM SC) Is the market cheap, is supply being absorbed, and has modern demand held up? It is built from four blocks: valuation stock (a basket of on-chain valuation and profitability ratios), absorption stock (long-term holder supply trends and short-term holder cleanup), demand floor (institutional flow and stablecoin liquidity trends), and trend mean reversion. A high bottom score is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for the BOTTOM regime.

Capitulation (CAPITULATION) Are participants surrendering right now? This is a pure flow signal: short-term and market-wide spending profitability, the rate of change in underwater supply, coin dormancy, and realised-loss momentum. If bottom structure says “cheap”, then capitulation says “it hurts, and participants are realizing losses”. One without the other is not enough.

Peak Risk (TOP SC) Are there signs of a peak zone or distribution? This includes valuation stretch, cycle timing, long-term holder distribution behaviour, speculative froth, and demand exhaustion on the institutional side. Peak Risk does not trigger just because price is high - it takes a full combination of overheating signals.

Stress How intense is the pressure on the market right now? Sentiment extremes, multi-timeframe drawdown depth, trend stress, institutional outflow pressure, and exchange pricing dislocations. When stress crosses its activation threshold, the fear interpretation gate is engaged. Below that threshold, the system does not try to classify the nature of fear, because fear is not yet present as a signal.

Conflict Are the signals aligned, or are they contradicting each other? There are three types of conflict: transition conflict (stress + top-process + no capitulation), flow conflict (stress + capitulation + top-process still alive), and structural overlap (bottom-process and top-process at the same time). High conflict means a simple label is dangerous - the system falls into TRANSITION HIGH CONFLICT.

When stress is active, Cycle Radar breaks the current fear into three components:

These three scores are not mutually exclusive and are not probabilities. They are activated confluence scores - they are active only when stress is above the threshold. In a calm market, all three are zero.

How to use it together with the terminal

Cycle Radar is the strategic layer. You should look at it before making tactical decisions.

Current situation (June 10, 2026): Cycle Radar shows FALLING KNIFE. Terminal - BEAR. Risk - RISK OFF. All three layers are aligned. Stress is 87, capitulation is 92, bottom structure is 68, while top risk is only 16. This means: the pain is real, capitulation is underway, and the bottom structure is forming - but there is still no confirmation. The system is watching whether the reset is sufficient for a transition from FALLING KNIFE to BOTTOM.

Frequently asked questions

How is FALLING KNIFE different from BOTTOM?
FALLING KNIFE is stress + an unconfirmed bottom. BOTTOM is stress + capitulation + a confirmed bottom structure. The difference is that in FALLING KNIFE, capitulation may not have reached its peak yet, and the bottom structure may not yet be strong enough. A transition from FALLING KNIFE to BOTTOM means the worst is over.

Why is bottom structure 68, capitulation 92, and the regime is still FALLING KNIFE?
Because the state machine does not check one score, but a combination of thresholds. To transition into BOTTOM, several conditions must line up at once: real_bottom_score must be above the threshold, bottom_score and capitulation_score must be high enough, and top_process must not block the regime. A bottom structure reading of 68 is strong, but the system still does not consider the full combination sufficient.

What is CYCLE POS 24?
It is a visual map from 0 to 100, where 0 is the bottom and 100 is the peak. A reading of 24 means the market is closer to the bottom zone. But this gauge cannot be read literally without edge and conflict scores. If edge is low, the position is unreliable. If conflict is high, the position may be misleading. Only with DIRECTIONAL quality can this number be used as a guide.

Why is the positive rate for BOTTOM only 67.86%, not 90%+?
Because this is real statistics, not curve-fitting. 67.86% of the days classified as BOTTOM produced a positive 60-day return. The remaining 32% were cases where the bottom turned out to be intermediate, or where the model triggered too early. Cycle Radar shows this honestly instead of drawing the illusion of 100% accuracy.

How often does it update?
The scores are recalculated every 4 hours together with the rest of the terminal. Price updates more frequently.

Questions - in the chat.

Axel