Risk On/Off - a new block in Decision Terminal v1.6

A macro filter that answers one question before you look at bitcoin: is global risk on or off?

With the v1.6 update, a second tab appeared in the terminal - ⚡ Risk On/Off. This is not an addition to MQS. It is a separate layer - a global macro filter that answers the question before you even look at bitcoin.

The question is: is global risk appetite on right now?

Why it exists

MQS (Market Quality Score) looks inside bitcoin - on-chain, derivatives, flows. It is great, but blind to what is happening outside: Japanese equities are collapsing, the dollar is strengthening, oil is flying - MQS does not see any of this.

Risk On/Off looks at 18 global instruments simultaneously: Asian indices, European indices, S&P and Nasdaq futures, BTC, ETH, VIX, DXY, US10Y, oil, gold and three BTC ratios. This is the full picture of where global capital is moving.

The rule is simple: if Risk On/Off says RISK OFF and MQS says IN PLAY - do not enter. The global filter overrides the local one.

How to read the screen

Screenshot

Risk On/Off - April 15, 2026 There are three columns on the screen.

Left card - STRICT SYNC

STRICT SYNC
+2.10
RISK ON

This is the primary signal. The score is calculated across all 18 instruments, aligned to one common date (2026-04-14 - yesterday’s data). All assets are compared on the same time slice - no mixing of different dates.

The scale below the score:

RISK OFF <--------------------------|----------------------------> RISK ON

The scale runs from -10 to +10. The marker shows where we are now. Zones:

+2.10 is RISK ON, the marker sits in the green zone but not at the maximum. Conditions are favorable but not euphoric.

Below the score - a technical line for those who want to go deeper:

mkt +3.58 · stress +2.48 · btc-tx -0.69
prelim +2.18 × 0.961

• mkt - average score across equities (Asia + Europe + US Futures + Crypto)

• stress - macro stress block (VIX, DXY, US10Y, oil, gold)

• btc-tx - BTC transmission: how BTC behaves relative to other assets

• prelim × multiplier - preliminary score × reliability coefficient (the worse the data coverage - the lower the multiplier)

At the bottom: HIGH CONF 89 · 18/18 OK - the model is confident, all 18 tickers were received successfully.

Right card - LIVE NOW

LIVE NOW
+1.48
RISK ON

The same, but each asset takes its own latest available data point, without date synchronization. Asian markets are already closed for today - we take today’s data. European markets are still trading - we take current data.

LIVE NOW is always fresher, but technically assets can be on different dates. When all markets are trading normally - the difference from STRICT SYNC is minimal. Today: +2.10 vs +1.48. There is a gap - meaning today’s data is slightly weaker than yesterday’s.

How to use both numbers:

• If both are green and close - the signal is clean.

• If STRICT is green and LIVE is already amber - conditions are deteriorating, be more careful.

• If both are red - global risk-off is confirmed, do not enter.

Center panel - DRIVERS / DRAGS + AI ANALYSIS

Drivers and Drags

▲ DRIVERS · Live Now          ▼ DRAGS
NQ   ████████░░░░   +3.41    BTC/NQ   ██░░░░░░   -1.01
ES   ████████░░░░   +3.33    GOLD     █░░░░░░░   -0.41
N225 ████████░░░░   +3.30    OIL      █░░░░░░░   -0.19

Top 3 assets pulling the score up and down. Bar length is proportional to signal strength (scale 0-10). Taken from LIVE NOW.

What this says today:

Nasdaq (+3.41), S&P (+3.33) and Nikkei (+3.30) - broad equity growth across all regions. This is a strong risk-on signal.

BTC/NQ (-1.01) in the right column - BTC is lagging behind Nasdaq. Global risk is on, but crypto is not leading the rally, it is following it at a discount. This matters for positioning.

AI Analysis

▸ AI ANALYSIS

Risk-on confirmed: +2.10 strict / +1.48 live. Top driver is NQ surging +5.24,
signaling aggressive equity risk appetite; top drag is BTC/NQ at -1.80,
warning that crypto is underperforming equities and flagging rotation hesitancy.
BTC positioning: stay flat-to-cautious - relative weakness versus equities
suggests the market is not yet rewarding crypto exposure despite the bullish
macro backdrop.

Three sentences, updated every cycle together with the data:

1. Verdict with numbers - strict and live score, direction.

2. Top driver and top drag - why each matters.

3. BTC conclusion - specific: long / flat / short and why.

Read for context, not as instruction. The position decision is yours.

Bottom sections

Below the main block - three additional sections for those who want to understand where the score comes from.

Risk Regions - 4 cards: Asia, Europe, US Futures, Crypto. Score for each region, breadth (share of assets with a positive signal), coverage, top movers with 1D return.

Macro Stress Block - 5 cards: VIX, DXY, US10Y, OIL, GOLD. These instruments are included with inverted logic: VIX rising = stress = negative for the score. DXY rising = dollar strengthening = pressure on risk assets. VIX and DXY declining - positive contribution.

BTC Transmission Ratios - 3 ratios: BTC/NQ, BTC/GOLD, ETH/BTC. They show not just where BTC is moving, but how it moves relative to other assets. BTC/NQ falling while Nasdaq rises - crypto underperforms. This signals that risk appetite exists but has not yet reached crypto.

Status bar at the top

UTC 2026-04-15 10:26:55 UTC    COMMON DATE 2026-04-14    COVERAGE 18/18

• UTC - time of the last calculation.

• COMMON DATE - the date used to align data in STRICT SYNC. If it is one day behind - one of the assets did not update (usually Shanghai on weekends).

• COVERAGE 18/18 - all 18 tickers received. If 17/18 - one asset is missing, weights are recalculated automatically.

How to use together with the terminal

Risk On/Off is a first-level filter. Look at it before opening the Terminal tab.

Frequently asked questions

Why do STRICT and LIVE differ? STRICT uses one common date for all assets - the signal is synchronized. LIVE takes the latest data for each - maximum freshness. On normal days the difference is +-0.1-0.3. A large gap means today’s data differs significantly from yesterday’s.

What is HIGH CONF 89? Confidence score from 0 to 100. Calculated from four components: data coverage, date synchronization, directional agreement between assets, signal magnitude. Below 60 - LOW, data is incomplete or assets are contradicting each other.

Why is BTC/NQ in the right column when the market is rising? The right column shows assets with a negative contribution to the overall score - those that pull it down. BTC/NQ is not the price of bitcoin and not the price of Nasdaq, it is their ratio. If Nasdaq rose 5% and BTC only 2% - the ratio fell, the contribution is negative. This does not mean BTC is falling. It means capital is choosing tech equity over crypto and the model registers this.

How often does it update? Every 4 hours together with the entire terminal. Data for exchange-traded instruments is intraday. AI Analysis regenerates every cycle.