STH Stress Thermometer

SQL of the Week 009

What It Is

STH Stress Thermometer is an indicator that measures how extreme the current state of Short-Term Holders (STH) is relative to their recent norm.

This is a thermometer, not a buy/sell button. It shows:

• when the market is vulnerable (STH are in an unusually comfortable state relative to the norm)

• when pain is already high (STH are in an unusually deep drawdown relative to the norm)

The thermometer provides context for decision-making but is not a standalone trading signal.

Scale (±3)

Key principle: extreme values (±2, ±3) reflect an atypical state that historically rarely persists for long.

Important: the Score sign represents the sign of deviation from the norm, not a direct indicator of profit/loss. To check “in profit or in loss,” look separately at STH MVRV (above/below 1) or BTC Price relative to STH Realized Price.

Methodology

Formula