Weekly Engine #92

W3 Apr 2026

GM/GN.

In Friday’s issue #150 of ☕️ ADLER AM I wrote that the long-term holder cohort continues to expand: LTH Realized Supply grew from 5.26M to 8.32M BTC, i.e. +3.06M BTC over the past three months.

Overall this is a positive signal. It shows that a significant portion of holders still believe in Bitcoin’s long-term return potential.

Looking at the broader picture, the chart shows that in the three previous cycles the LTH cohort held more than 15M BTC. Yes, the current cycle differs from previous ones: market structure has changed, ETFs have appeared, and the role of derivatives and institutional capital has grown. But the historical pattern itself is still worth paying attention to - market bottoms formed at the moment when more than 15M BTC moved into the hands of long-term holders. Such concentration of coins among LTH compressed available spot liquidity and created the foundation for the next growth phase.

At the same time, it is important to understand that this is just one of the historical patterns, not a universal rule. That is exactly why we now have Weekly Engine - a system that analyzes 7 data layers and accounts for several dozen parameters in order to precisely identify the current market phase, as well as cycle bottom and top zones.

This Wednesday the first major terminal update dropped - a second tab appeared: ⚡ Risk On/Off. This is a separate layer, a global macro filter that answers the question before you even start looking at Bitcoin. Risk On/Off simultaneously analyzes 18 global instruments: Asian and European indices, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures, BTC, ETH, VIX, DXY, US10Y yield, oil, gold, and three BTC ratios. Essentially, it is a map of where global capital is moving at any given moment.

The rule is simple: if the dashboard shows RISK OFF while the terminal gives an IN PLAY status, entering a position is not advisable. The global filter always takes priority over a local signal. More details about the update can be read at this link.

Next week the Bitcoin Analysis Framework is scheduled to launch - a ready-made decision framework built on classic on-chain data. It includes 11 metrics combined into 3 analytical layers, along with live charts for each metric in its structure. The framework itself and all data will be available for free on my website. The announcement and a brief usage guide will be published here in one of the upcoming Adler Education issues.

That is all for the news - now we move to the week’s resolution. Weekly Engine will go through all 7 layers and show whether the balance has shifted since last week or whether the market is still standing in the same position. Where new cracks have appeared, which layers held, and what conclusion this leads to.