Bitcoin Trends – W1 June 2025

Bitcoin in local correction: corporate sector accumulates coins, momentum cooling, exchange outflows keep price above $100K. What to expect next week?

TL;DR:

Cooling of BTC bullish momentum after new ATH, impact of weakening inflation and tariff risks on macro backdrop, new corporate purchases, sustained coin outflows from exchanges, hashrate growth, as well as sideways scenarios $103–110K with key triggers for range breakout.

Macroeconomics from the past week

Priority: High

1. PCE Price Index Forecast (April 2025): +0.1% m/m

   Conclusion: Expected moderate acceleration of core inflation (PCE excluding food and energy) to +0.1% m/m indicates declining price pressure in March, but persistent risks for the Fed: annual PCE inflation is projected to slow to 2.2% (7-month low), while core inflation drops to 2.5% (lowest since March 2021). This will strengthen arguments for cautious monetary policy easing advocates.

2. Initial Q1 2025 US GDP Revision: –0.2% y/y (instead of –0.3%)

   Conclusion: The downward revision of GDP contraction was less deep than previously thought, largely due to stronger-than-expected growth in fixed capital investment (+7.8%) and exports (+2.4%). However, slowdown in consumer spending (+1.2% - lowest level since Q2 2023) and sharp import growth (+42.6%) reflect the "forward" effect of tariffs and high price expectations, constraining domestic demand.

3. May FOMC Minutes: "tariff uncertainty growing"

   Conclusion: Fed participants acknowledged that the scope and scale of recent tariff measures exceeded expectations, raising risks for both employment and inflation. Policymakers emphasized a "patient approach" and are prepared to wait for clearer signals on trade policy's economic impact before deciding on rate cuts.

Priority: Moderate

1. US Mortgage Applications (week ending May 23, 2025): –1.2%

   Conclusion: Second consecutive decline to three-month low linked to rising 30-year mortgage rates near 7% due to escalating fiscal risks. Refinancing applications fell 7.1%, while home purchase requests slightly increased (+2.7%), demonstrating dual dynamics in the mortgage market.

Conclusions

• PCE inflation beginning to slow: expected +0.1% m/m growth and annual rate deceleration to 2.2% (overall) and 2.5% (core) creates space for the Fed to avoid rushing into easing.

• US economy maintained smaller degree of GDP contraction: less deep recession (–0.2% instead of –0.3%) gives illusion of stability, but notable consumer spending slowdown and import surge signal tariff uncertainty impact.

• Fed postponed decisions: "minutes" clearly indicate high dollar uncertainty and trade measure risks, forcing regulator to maintain patience and await clear signals.

• Mortgage applications falling: housing finance conditions tightening reflects yield growth and negative market participant expectations amid rising fiscal risks.

Next week

• Key US events:
  – May employment report;
  – ISM PMI (manufacturing and services);
  – Fed representatives speeches (including J. Powell);
  – Monthly JOLTS report (job openings);
  – Manufacturing orders and trade data.

• Central banks:
  – Interest rate decisions from ECB, Bank of Canada, and Reserve Bank of India.

• Global inflation and GDP:
  – Eurozone, South Korea, Switzerland, and Turkey CPI;
  – GDP data from Switzerland, South Africa, and Australia;
  – Manufacturing PMI reports (South Korea, Russia, Italy, Spain, Canada, China) and services (Spain, Italy, Brazil, China);
  – Foreign trade statistics from Australia, Canada, Brazil, Germany, and France.

This week promises to be volatile: renewed threats of new US tariffs and Fed activity create heightened attention to macroeconomic indicator dynamics.

Stock market from the past week

Priority: High

1. S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones fluctuated awaiting China negotiations

   Conclusion: On Friday, US stocks recovered most losses after Trump's statement about possible meeting with Xi Jinping. S&P 500 index declined only 0.1%, Nasdaq 100 - 0.3%, while Dow Jones added about 100 points. However, tension hasn't disappeared: Trump accused China of violating agreements, intensifying caution in technology sector (Nvidia, AMD, Micron, Intel stocks fell more than 1.5%).

2. May results: best month for S&P 500 since end of 2023

   Conclusion: Despite intraday fluctuations, S&P 500 finished the month up 6.2%, Nasdaq 100 - up 9.6%, and Dow Jones - up 3.9%. Markets were supported by data showing declining price pressures (PCE index showed inflation slowdown) and strong retailer reports (Costco +3–4%, Ulta Beauty +11–12%). Meanwhile, Gap shares plummeted nearly 20% after weak sales forecast.

Priority: Moderate

1. Technology sector under pressure amid trade risks

   Conclusion: Throughout the week, chipmakers remained among decline leaders: Nvidia, AMD, Micron and Intel lost 1.5% to 2% on different days amid trade war escalation expectations. Investors fear new technology equipment export restrictions will intensify demand deficit and trigger volatility growth.

2. Diverse corporate results during the week

   Conclusion: Positive reports from Costco (+3–4%) and Ulta Beauty (+11–12%) again showed consumer goods segment strength, while Gap fell nearly 20% amid sharp sales forecast downgrade. This highlights gap between "safe" retail and more vulnerable retailers amid economic uncertainty.

Week summary

• S&P 500 index finished close to zero in last session, but showed over 6% growth for May - best month since November 2023.

• Nasdaq 100 closed Friday without significant dynamics (–0.3% in yesterday's session), but rose nearly 9.6% for May.

• Dow Jones finished Friday trading with 100-point gain, strengthening approximately 3.9% during the month.

Key conclusions

• Trade negotiation expectations remain main volatility driver: statements about improving China relations briefly support markets, but violation accusations quickly return risks.

• PCE inflation data provided "glimpse" of relief: price pressure slowdown strengthened hopes for Fed monetary policy easing and stimulated growth in key sectors.

• Retail showed dual dynamics: strong Costco and Ulta Beauty results confirm part of consumer demand resilience, while Gap decline demonstrates continued uneven market recovery.

• Technology sector remains at risk due to new restriction and tariff threats: Nvidia, AMD and other chipmaker declines emphasize that any negative trade news can trigger broad retreat.

• Overall backdrop: despite noticeable intraday fluctuations, May concluded with notable "bullish" momentum, however further trading will depend on actual US–China negotiation results and upcoming corporate reports.

Important news from the past week

Priority: High

1. SEC: PoS staking is not a security, opening path for more direct staking inclusion in ETF composition under clear regulatory guidance.

2. BlackRock's IBIT marked $4.26 billion inflow into bitcoin ETFs over 10 days, bringing assets under management to $72 billion and recording 33-day inflow streak totaling $9.3 billion.

3. In May, domestic spot bitcoin ETFs received $5.77 billion inflow, becoming best performance since November 2024 amid record demand and new BTC highs.

4. MicroStrategy acquired 4,020 BTC for $427 million, increasing reserves to 580,250 BTC (profit grew to $22.7 billion), representing nearly 3% of all existing bitcoins.

5. Trump Media concluded $2.32 billion deal to create bitcoin treasury, becoming one of largest BTC holders among US public companies.

Priority: Moderate

1. Twenty One (backed by Tether) raised up to $685 million through bond issuance, including $100 million secondary offering, for further BTC reserve expansion.

2. GameStop acquired 4,710 BTC (about $513 million) for its treasury reserve, joining MicroStrategy and Metaplanet among corporate buyers.

3. Metaplanet issued $50 million zero-coupon bonds to purchase even larger BTC volume; currently holds 7,800 BTC with plan to reach 10,000 by end of 2025.

4. Blockchain Group completed $72 million bond placement aiming to purchase 1,400 BTC, after which company's market capitalization more than doubled.

5. FTX Trading Ltd. (operating under FTX.com brand) and FTX Recovery Trust announces beginning of creditor payments exceeding $5 billion as part of bankruptcy proceedings. Fund distribution will be executed through two trusted Distribution Service Providers — BitGo and Kraken. Funds will be distributed in stablecoins, which in turn will create additional market liquidity inflow.

6. Hyperliquid trader James Wynn lost over $100 million when his $1.25 billion BTC long positions were liquidated after price fell below $105,000.

Priority: Low

1. Circle froze $58 million USDC linked to Libra scandal and blocked Solana wallets connected to Argentine politician Javier Milei, as part of possible fraud investigations.

2. Net $358 million outflow from US spot bitcoin ETFs on Thursday ended 10-day inflow streak and became largest outflow since March 11, 2025.

3. Dubai launched Prypco Mint for real estate tokenization worth $16 billion on XRP Ledger network, starting with fractional ownership of UAE properties.

Conclusions

Regulatory changes and institutional inflows continue determining market dynamics: SEC recognition of PoS staking outside securities framework strengthens crypto-ETF positions, while record IBIT inflows and other funds, even amid brief outflows, demonstrate sustained institutional interest.

Simultaneously, corporate players continued active purchases: MicroStrategy, Trump Media, GameStop, Twenty One and Metaplanet increase BTC reserves, while Blockchain Group attracts additional funds specifically for cryptocurrency accumulation. These deals confirm preservation of "treasury" hedging trend through Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, market shows risk and volatility signs: massive FTX payments, Circle blockades indicate strengthening control measures and responses to fraudulent schemes.

Overall, despite individual short-term outflows and corrections, general picture remains bullish.

Bitcoin trading week macro analysis

1. BTC/USD pair analysis

Key weekly indicators

• Current price: ≈ $104.2K

• Local maximum: $110.8K

• Local minimum: $103.1K

Trend

This week Bitcoin experienced rebound attempt from $110K level (with $110.8K peak) at period beginning, but by mid-week broad correction initiated: price dropped toward $105K and reached local minimum $103.1K. Trading volumes during decline were moderate, indicating restrained long position closure and gradual distribution. In last two days price consolidated in narrow $103K–$104.5K range, forming "bottom" consolidation corridor after decline.

Conclusions

• Key resistance: $110K
  Retesting $110K mark will require increased buying volumes. Only breakout and hold above $110K on elevated volumes will open new $115K targets.

• Local support: $103K
  This zone already twice contained downward momentum. Holding $103K will preserve bullish foundation reliability and reduce deeper decline continuation risk.

• Strong base support: $100K
  Breaking psychological $100K mark will strengthen bear pressure and may trigger deeper correction toward $95–$97K.

2. Bitcoin Price Momentum (30-day)

Over the past week, Bitcoin's 30-day momentum decreased from 14% to 7.7%, indicating further weakening of buying pressure. This coincided with price correction deepening toward $103K zone. As result, momentum dropped into "near neutral" zone and now fluctuates below average level (≈ +10%), suggesting market tendency toward sideways consolidation without clear drivers.

Conclusions

• Momentum below 10% increases flat probability: buyers not yet ready to return with same enthusiasm as couple weeks ago.

• Momentum around 0%–5% — "crossroads" situation: price likely to hold in current range ($103K – $105K) until strong catalyst appears.

• Momentum recovery above 20% (on significant volumes) will become clear signal for new rally and $110K – $112K test.

3. Options analysis

Market structure

• Call option dominance:
  Green bars concentrated on $107K –$130K strikes, with largest volumes recorded at: $130K - $122K levels. This indicates active hedging of growth above current Max Pain ($107K).

• Put options:
  Red bars dominate on $85K–$110K strikes, with peak interest at: $85K - $90K, then Put volumes gradually decrease, after $110K Put volumes become insignificant (≈ 1.5M and below), indicating protective bet shift toward lower ranges.

Comparative analysis with previous week

• Max Pain change:
  Max Pain level rose from $102K to $107K, reflecting further shift in options players' interest balance toward higher prices.

• Volume dynamics:

  • Call options: volumes on $125K – $130K strikes (≈ 9–12M) increased compared to last week (previously peak Calls were in $115K – $122K range). Meanwhile, Call volumes in mid-range $112K – $120K remained approximately same level (~ 3–6M).

  • Put options: Put volumes on key lower strikes ($85K – $90K) decreased relative to previous week (was ~ 12–10M → became ~ 11–9M). In $95K – $102K range Put volumes decreased from ~ 4–5M to ~ 3–4M. However, largest Put positions remain concentrated on $85K–$87K.

Forecast

• Possible growth:
  If $107K support holds and Call volumes continue growing, most likely testing $110K–$112K zone. With confident breakout of this range, further movement toward $120K can be expected.

• Correction risks:
  Breaking $107K level with simultaneous Put volume increase may return price to $102K – $105K area, where main "bear" protection is concentrated.

Bitcoin network data analysis

1. Number of Active Wallets (7d):

• Previous Week: 8,677,445

• This Week: 7,875,774

• Change: 🔴 −9.24%

• Commentary: Sharp address activity decline (−9.2%) indicates further consolidation: retail users reduce transaction volume, awaiting clearer price signals.

2. Network Hashrate:

• Previous Week: 852,722,089,094 EH/s

• This Week: 1,016,284,104,888 EH/s

• Change: 🟢 +19.18%

• Commentary: Significant hashrate growth (+19%) indicates mining capacity expansion — possibly part of capacity returned to network after maintenance or price declines, enhancing protocol security.

3. BTC Exchange Reserves:

• Previous Week: 2,465,720 BTC

• This Week: 2,432,990 BTC

• Change: 🔴 −1.33%

• Commentary: Continuing exchange outflows, though not very large (−1.3%), confirm long-term accumulation and reduced supply available for sale.

4. Transfer Volume (7d):

• Previous Week: 4,925,755 BTC

• This Week: 3,750,951 BTC

• Change: 🔴 −23.85%

• Commentary: Nearly 24% transfer volume decline indicates general on-chain activity slowdown: users less frequently move funds between wallets and exchanges.

5. Market Capitalization:

• Previous Week: $2,141,332,707,976

• This Week: $2,075,899,984,230

• Change: 🔴 −2.88%

• Commentary: Capitalization decrease (−2.9%) reflects price decline and partial short-term investor outflow, creating downward pressure on market value.

6. Market Price:

• Previous Week: $107,704.91

• This Week: $104,518.38

• Change: 🔴 −2.96%

• Commentary: Price corrected nearly 3%.

Conclusions

1. Declining retail activity: sharp drop in active wallets (−9.24%) and reduced transfer volumes (−23.85%) indicate position consolidation and awaiting further signals.

2. Mining strengthening: hashrate growth (+19.18%) demonstrates mining farm return or expansion, enhancing network security despite price correction.

3. Price and capitalization correction: simultaneous price (−2.96%) and capitalization (−2.88%) decline indicates short-term investors partially locked in profits after previous growth.

4. Long-term accumulation continues: exchange outflows (−1.33%) continue BTC accumulation trend in "cold" storage, creating base for possible growth resumption with improving market conditions.

On-chain metrics

Bitcoin Exchange Flow

This week Exchange Netflow (SMA-30d) remained in negative zone (≈ −3,600 BTC) for several days, indicating sustained coin outflows from exchanges (i.e., accumulation/buying). BTC price responded with slight pullback after local maximum.

Current state (June 1, 2025)

Chart nuances

1. Elevated outflow ≈ − 3.6K BTC

   • Compared to October 2024 (deep outflow ≈ − 5.6K BTC per day) exchange withdrawal intensity slightly decreased, but remains significant: most participants withdraw BTC from exchanges, indicating continuing accumulation.

   • Result: long-term holders continue taking coins from spot platforms, supporting price, covering demand from sellers.

1. Risks and invalidation

• Invalidation: if Netflow sharply changes to + 2,500…+ 3,000 BTC within week (many coins enter exchanges = selling pressure) or if price breaks $110K with significant inflow (> 2,500 BTC), current scenario hypothesis will lose relevance.

2. Tactical plan

1. Hold main position and accumulate during new outflow wave

   • Don't close position completely, as negative Netflow (outflow) indicates continuing accumulation.

   • With outflow strengthening (Netflow ≤ − 4,000 BTC) and price correction in $100,000–$102,000 range, gradually accumulate up to 50% of current position.

2. Partial profit-taking with Netflow sign change

   • If Netflow turns positive (+1,000…+2,000 BTC) for two-three consecutive days (i.e., coin inflows to exchanges → sales begin) and price breaks $106,500–$107,000, lock in up to 20% of position.

   • This allows profit realization without losing participation in medium-term accumulation.

Summary

• Current trend: sustained exchange outflows (≈ − 3.6K BTC) at price around $104K indicates continuing accumulation by long-term holders.

• Strategy: hold long, accumulate on strong outflow (Netflow ≤ − 4K BTC and price $100K–$102K), partially lock profits at first signs of exchange inflows (Netflow > + 1K BTC and price > $106K).

• Key levels:

  • $100K–$102K - accumulation zone during intensified outflow;

  • $106K–$107K - profit-taking zone when exchange inflows appear.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder P&L to Exchanges Sum 24H

The chart shows that short-term holder profit spikes (green line) clearly correlate with local BTC price peaks (black line). In late May (around May 24–25), when price approached $111K, exchange profit flow exceeded 49K BTC, followed by price pullback. Then in following days, as price bounced to new levels around $107–108K, we observed more modest spikes - first around 32K BTC, then 22K BTC per day, indicating short-term holders still locked in profits, but in decreasing volume.

By early June, STH profit directed to exchanges decreased to approximately 3.4K BTC, despite price maintaining $104K level. This indicates base players seeking quick profit realization are depleting, and selling pressure from short-term holders significantly weakening. As result, low P&L flow volume in early June may signal reduced potential decline, as main mass of profitable coins already passed through exchanges in previous weeks.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder 30 day Net Position Change

The chart shows that starting April 2025, long-term holders (LTH) sharply increased their positions: over 30-day period net growth was around +535K BTC, resulting in cumulative LTH supply growing from 14M BTC to 14.5M BTC. Rising green bars demonstrate large investors and "whales" stopped selling and instead accumulate coins despite ATH. Such "long-term" concentration traditionally indicates strengthening confidence in medium-term market prospects and creating "buffer" of free exchange supply.

Given LTH-Supply indicators stabilize at high levels, this creates "downside cushion": even if speculative demand weakens, main part of long-term assets will remain locked, reducing sharp crash probability.

Conclusion.

Despite 30-day momentum cooling to ≈8% and brief correction to $103–104K, fundamentals remain bullish: exchange reserves continue shrinking, corporate purchases keep supply under pressure, while LTH expand reserves, creating "cushion" below market. Meanwhile, macro picture gives mixed signals: PCE inflation slowing removes part of Fed pressure, but tariff uncertainty and yield growth strengthen "risk-off" regime, constraining growth appetite.

Base scenario for next week - sideways $103–110K, until new driver appears. Breaking $110K on elevated volumes and momentum >20% will confirm readiness for $115–120K test, Netflow turning positive and drop below $100K will argue for deeper correction.

Next week forecast

Investment recommendations: 🟢 OUTPERFORM (Accumulate)

For more details about rating, please visit: https://adlerinsight.com/Adler_Insight_Rating.pdf

Good luck in the upcoming trading week!
AAJ

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Disclaimer:

This material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities, digital assets, or other financial instruments. The information presented in this report is considered reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any investment decisions are made by the investor independently, taking into account personal financial circumstances and, if necessary, after consultation with a qualified professional. The author and affiliated parties may hold positions in the assets mentioned in this report. The author and publisher accept no responsibility for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this information.

Risks:

High volatility may lead to sharp fluctuations in value, adversely affecting investors' portfolios. Significant price swings may reduce the attractiveness of BTC to institutional investors, especially in the derivatives segment (futures, options). Potential tightening of regulatory requirements by governments and central banks may restrict access to BTC markets and reduce liquidity. Issues with custodial services, centralized exchanges, and hacking incidents could undermine confidence in the asset and negatively impact liquidity.