Bitcoin Trends – W2 June 2025

1 M BTC held by LTH, deficit grows, political noise around Musk/Trump — key triggers for the upcoming week

TL;DR:

Bitcoin entered sideways movement, momentum is cooling, but coin outflow from exchanges and record LTH Supply growth (+1 million BTC) support supply deficit, US macro data, negotiations with China and political noise around Musk/Trump - key triggers for the upcoming week.

Macroeconomics over the past week

Priority: High

1. Average hourly earnings in US private non-farm sector (May 2025): +0.4% m/m, +3.9% y/y

   Conclusion: The most significant growth since January and exceeding forecasts reflect persistent pressure on payrolls, complicating the Fed's task of reducing inflation.

2. US Non-farm employment (May 2025): +139,000

   Conclusion: Job growth slightly exceeded consensus (130,000), despite revisions of previous months, indicating labor market resilience while simultaneously slowing hiring pace.

3. Eurozone GDP growth in Q1 2025: +0.6% q/q (vs preliminary +0.3%)

   Conclusion: Upward revision marks the strongest expansion since Q3 2022 thanks to outstanding results from Ireland and Germany, also sup…