Bitcoin Trends – W2 June 2025

1 M BTC held by LTH, deficit grows, political noise around Musk/Trump — key triggers for the upcoming week

TL;DR:

Bitcoin entered sideways movement, momentum is cooling, but coin outflow from exchanges and record LTH Supply growth (+1 million BTC) support supply deficit, US macro data, negotiations with China and political noise around Musk/Trump - key triggers for the upcoming week.

Macroeconomics over the past week

Priority: High

1. Average hourly earnings in US private non-farm sector (May 2025): +0.4% m/m, +3.9% y/y

   Conclusion: The most significant growth since January and exceeding forecasts reflect persistent pressure on payrolls, complicating the Fed's task of reducing inflation.

2. US Non-farm employment (May 2025): +139,000

   Conclusion: Job growth slightly exceeded consensus (130,000), despite revisions of previous months, indicating labor market resilience while simultaneously slowing hiring pace.

3. Eurozone GDP growth in Q1 2025: +0.6% q/q (vs preliminary +0.3%)

   Conclusion: Upward revision marks the strongest expansion since Q3 2022 thanks to outstanding results from Ireland and Germany, also supported by investment growth.

Priority: Moderate

4. Average 30-year mortgage rate (Freddie Mac, June 5, 2025): 6.89% (−4 bp for the week)

   Conclusion: Decline to nearly four-month low reflects falling Treasury yields amid labor market weakening and ISM Services PMI transition into contraction zone, strengthening Fed easing expectations and supporting housing demand.

Next week

• US-China trade negotiations and impact on financial markets.

• Trump-Musk rift as additional political uncertainty factor.

• USA: CPI, PPI reports and UMich consumer confidence index;

• China: CPI, PPI and foreign trade data;

• Latin America and Asia: inflation in Mexico, Brazil, Russia and India;

• Europe: Germany PPI; UK GDP, employment, trade balance and industrial production;

• APAC: NAB and Westpac business and consumer confidence surveys in Australia.

Conclusions

• US labor market remains flexible, but revisions and hiring slowdown soften the positive.

• Inflationary pressure on wages remains high, keeping the Fed in wait-and-see mode.

• Eurozone demonstrates economic growth strength, reducing pressure on ECB.

• Mortgage market receives support from lower rates and improved housing affordability.

• Geopolitical and political uncertainty (China negotiations, Trump-Musk conflict) will continue to influence investors and monetary policy tone.

Stock market over the past week

Priority: High

1. US stocks rallied on Friday

   Conclusion: S&P 500 gained 1%, broke through 6,000 points and reached maximum since February; Dow Jones rose 442 points, Nasdaq 100 by 1.2%. Strong employment report (139k job additions) and announcement of resumed US-China negotiations supported optimism, while easing disagreements between Trump and Musk contributed to Tesla stock recovery (+3.7%).

2. All three major US indices closed the week in positive territory

   Conclusion: Over seven trading days, S&P 500 and Dow Jones grew more than 1%, Nasdaq 100 - by 2%. Investors continue building exposures, counting on progress in trade negotiations and Fed maintaining interest rates at stable level.

Priority: Moderate

1. European markets STOXX 50 and STOXX 600 rose 0.2% on Friday

   Conclusion: Exchanges appreciated warm US employment data and expectations of resumed China negotiations. UBS shares added over 3% on news of new capital rules, while Adidas and Puma declined after Lululemon's profit forecast reduction.

Week results

• American indices showed steady growth influenced by strong macro data and progress in trade negotiations.

• Technology sector received support from major players (Nvidia +1.2%, Meta +1.9%, Apple +2.1%).

• European markets synchronized with US optimism, despite mixed corporate news.

• Main driver for next week - results of US-China meetings and upcoming corporate reports, which will set tone for further movements.

Note

Continuing wage pressure and US labor market resilience continue to fuel inflation, which means the Fed is unlikely to rush with sharp policy easing. At the same time, hiring slowdown and weak ISM Services PMI data reduce probability of new tightening cycle - this creates balanced background for risk assets: their growth potential remains, but without sharp price spikes.

In parallel, upward revision of Eurozone GDP data and mortgage rate decline expand capital accessibility and strengthen confidence in global growth, enhancing investor appetite for volatile instruments. Optimism around US-China trade negotiations and reduced political uncertainty also shift markets into "risk mode," supporting both stocks and cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin.

Important news from the past week

1. Strategy increases preferred stock STRD offering to $1 billion, expanding financing opportunities for further bitcoin purchases; company reserves reached 580,955 BTC ($60 billion).

2. FCA will allow UK retail investors to buy crypto ETNs, which should enhance London digital asset market competitiveness.

3. JPMorgan will accept bitcoin and crypto ETFs as loan collateral, reflecting key position change of largest US bank toward digital assets.

4. Stablecoin market capitalization exceeded $250 billion for the first time, and total DeFi locked value reached record $113 billion amid new legislative initiatives in US and Hong Kong.

5. South Korea elected pro-crypto Lee Jae-myung as president, who promises to allow crypto ETFs and launch won-pegged stablecoin market.

Priority: Moderate

1. Trump Media registers for $12 billion stock offering after closing $2.44 billion bitcoin treasury bonds deal and filing application for proprietary Bitcoin ETF.

2. Circle Internet Group (CRCL) shares jumped more than 250% on IPO day - shares debuted on NYSE June 6 at $30 per share, jumped to $96.39 (+221%) at opening, reached intraday peak of $123.51 (+312%) during session, and closed at $107.70 (+259%). Primary placement volume was $1.1 billion.

3. MoonPay received BitLicense approval and can now offer direct crypto services in all 50 US states after opening headquarters in SoHo (New York).

4. Ripple RLUSD approved in Dubai International Financial Centre, expanding stablecoin accessibility in UAE market.

5. Kraken launched Kraken Prime — comprehensive brokerage platform for institutional clients with trading, custody and lending capabilities.

Priority: Low

1. Metaplanet bought another 1,088 BTC (≈$930 million), bringing total reserves to 8,888 BTC and confirming plan to reach 10,000 BTC by year-end.

Conclusions

Institutional investors and large corporations continue strengthening their bitcoin positions: Strategy and Metaplanet expand reserves through new issuances and bond programs, while Trump Media prepares serious IPO activity. Regulators accelerate integration: retail ETNs in UK, bitcoin collateral recognition in US, and political support in South Korea.

Technology providers consolidate services: Circle and MoonPay expand licenses and geography, while Kraken strengthens institutional offering. Peak stablecoin market cap and record DeFi TVL demonstrate ecosystem maturity and growing demand for stable digital assets. Together, these events create solid foundation for further crypto market growth and expansion of its ties with traditional finance.

Bitcoin trading week macro analysis

1. BTC/USD pair analysis

Key indicators for the week

• Current price: ≈ $105.2K

• Local maximum: $106.8K

• Local minimum: $101.6K

Trend

This week Bitcoin again demonstrated sideways range: price fluctuated between $106.8K resistance and $101.6K support. At period start, quotes held around $106K, then in second half of week amid intensifying public conflict between Elon Musk and President Trump, there was retreat to $101.6K, after which quick rebound to $105K level occurred. Trading volumes remained moderate, indicating continued position accumulation and lack of momentum for confident movement in either direction.

Conclusions

• Key resistance: $106.8K
  Break and hold above this mark with volume growth may lead to retest of $110K.

• Local support: $101.6K
  This zone already served twice as "bounce" point - its preservation will indicate market readiness to defend current levels.

• Strong base support: $100K
  Break below $100K will strengthen seller pressure and may trigger deeper correction to $95K–$97K.

2. Bitcoin Price Momentum (30-day)

Over the past week, Bitcoin's 30-day momentum decreased from 7.7% to 2.5%, indicating further fading of upward trend. Previously at 7.7% level, momentum already showed weak acceleration, but subsequent price correction threw indicator almost to zero mark. Now momentum fluctuates at +2.5% level, significantly below long-term average (+10%), confirming market transition to sideways consolidation phase.

Conclusions

• Momentum below 5% strengthens flat probability: buyers paused active purchases.

• 0%–5% zone remains neutral: price will likely remain in $103K–$105K range until significant driver appears.

• Momentum return above 20% on tangible volumes will become clear signal for rally resumption and new test of $110K–$112K.

3. Options analysis

Market structure

• Call options predominance:
  Green bars concentrated on $115K–$130K strikes. Largest volumes recorded at:

  • $130K (16M)

  • $127.5K (14M)

  • $125K (12M)
    This indicates active hedging of potential price growth above current Max Pain.

• Put options:
  Red bars dominate in lower $90K–$97.5K range. Peak interest falls on:

  • $90K (7M)

  • $92.5K (4M)

  • $95K (2M)
    After $97.5K, Put volumes sharply decrease (below 1M), indicating defensive bet shift.

Comparative analysis with previous week

• Max Pain change:
  Max Pain adjusted from $107K to $106K, reflecting slight redistribution of interests toward strikes closer to market.

• Volume dynamics:

  • Call: volumes at highest strikes ($125K–$130K) continued growth (from 9–12M to 12–16M), middle range ($112.5K–$120K) also increased activity (from 6M to 8M).

  • Put: peak Put volumes in $85K–$90K zone decreased (from 11–9M to 7M), while in $95K–$102.5K range decreased from 4–5M to 2–1M.

Forecast

• Possible growth:
  Holding support at $106K level with further Call volume growth may lead to testing $108K–$110K zone, and with confident break – to movement toward $120K.

• Correction risks:
  Breaking $106K combined with Put volume increase can return price to $102K–$104K range, where main "bear" protection is concentrated.

Bitcoin network data analysis

1. Market Capitalization:

• Previous Week: $2,079,589,984,230

• This Week: $2,099,782,310,565

• Change: 🟢 +0.97%

• Comment: 1% capitalization growth reflects moderate demand increase.

2. Network Hashrate:

• Previous Week: 1,016,284,104,888 EH/s

• This Week: 902,662,279,497 EH/s

• Change: 🔴 −11.18%

• Comment: Significant hashrate decline may be related to equipment maintenance and capacity redistribution, but poses no critical risk to network security.

3. Number of Active Wallets (7d):

• Previous Week: 8,641,019

• This Week: 7,464,893

• Change: 🔴 −13.61%

• Comment: Nearly 14% decrease in address activity indicates further consolidation and strengthened accumulation.

4. Market Price:

• Previous Week: $104,720.73

• This Week: $105,601.88

• Change: 🟢 +0.84%

• Comment: Price grew less than 1% amid low volatility.

5. Transfer Volume (7d):

• Previous Week: 4,074,555 BTC

• This Week: 4,109,535 BTC

• Change: 🟢 +0.86%

• Comment: Small transfer volume growth indicates minimal on-chain activity from investors.

6. BTC Exchange Reserves:

• Previous Week: 2,432,990 BTC

• This Week: 2,364,327 BTC

• Change: 🔴 −2.82%

• Comment: Continuing exchange outflow (−2.8%) strengthens long-term accumulation trend and reduces liquid supply volume.

Conclusions

1. Retail address consolidation: sharp drop in active wallets (−13.6%) indicates investor transition to waiting mode (HODL).

2. Technical mining pause: significant hashrate decrease (−11.2%) related to maintenance service, but doesn't threaten network reliability.

3. Long-term accumulation continues: 2.8% BTC outflow from exchanges reinforces foundation for next growth wave when demand drivers appear.

On-chain metrics

Bitcoin Short-Term Holders and Long Term Holders Supply

1. Brief about STH Supply metric

• STH Supply — total volume of BTC that last moved less than 155 days ago.

• Upon reaching this threshold, coins "age" and automatically requalify into Long-Term Holders Supply (LTH).

2. Reasons for sharp STH Supply drop

1. Coin "maturation"

   • ~1 million BTC simultaneously crossed holding threshold (155 days) → moved from STH to LTH category.

   • Signal: large cohorts of short-term coins transitioned to long-term holders (positive for market as coins are being held).

3. How to understand what exactly is happening?

To distinguish maturation from selling, need to compare STH Supply drop with:

• LTH Supply dynamics (if LTH reached new maximum — coins "matured").

• Exchange address flows (Net Inflow to Exchanges should be green, more purchases than sales).

4. Practical conclusions

• If STH ↓ + LTH ↑ + exchange flows stable → this is coin "maturation", long-term holders building positions.

Total: 1 million BTC STH Supply drop in short period means aging of these coins and transition from STH category to long-term holder pool. This is very large accumulation, over $100 billion at current rate.

Bitcoin ETF Tracker

Bitcoin ETF Tracker - average daily outflow from spot ETFs over past trading week was -1500 BTC (7-day SMA drops below zero), indicating moderate pressure from institutional investors taking profit or redistributing funds.

However, this wave of small ETF sales is completely covered by long-term holder accumulation dynamic and exchange outflows: as of June 8, LTH Supply grew by almost 1 million BTC, while net exchange Netflow reached negative values around −4.9K BTC daily (close to December minimum of −5.6K BTC). In other words, despite current ETF outflows, long-term investor accumulation and exchange outflows "hypercompensate" this process, maintaining supply deficit in market.

Conclusion.

Bitcoin remains "squeezed" between $101K–$102K support and $106K–$107K resistance. Coin outflow from exchanges, accelerated "maturation" of 1 million BTC into LTH wallets and spot ETF reserve decline more than compensate moderate sales through exchange products. Meanwhile, momentum (30-d MoM +2.5%) weakened to neutral zone, and hashrate dropped due to farm maintenance - both factors indicate temporary growth pause. In coming days, $103K–$110K range still looks like base scenario: catalyst for breakout may come from US CPI/PPI data and US-China negotiation results. For now, large buyers continue "taking supply" - any dip to $100K will likely meet active demand.

Next week forecast

Investment recommendations: 🟣 HOLD (Neutral)

More details about rating can be found at this link: https://adlerinsight.com/Adler_Insight_Rating.pdf

Good luck in the upcoming trading week!

AAJ

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Disclaimer:

This material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities, digital assets, or other financial instruments. The information presented in this report is considered reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any investment decisions are made by the investor independently, taking into account personal financial circumstances and, if necessary, after consultation with a qualified professional. The author and affiliated parties may hold positions in the assets mentioned in this report. The author and publisher accept no responsibility for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this information.

Risks:

High volatility may lead to sharp fluctuations in value, adversely affecting investors' portfolios. Significant price swings may reduce the attractiveness of BTC to institutional investors, especially in the derivatives segment (futures, options). Potential tightening of regulatory requirements by governments and central banks may restrict access to BTC markets and reduce liquidity. Issues with custodial services, centralized exchanges, and hacking incidents could undermine confidence in the asset and negatively impact liquidity.