Bitcoin Trends – W3 June 2025

Bitcoin stuck at $105K level: corporate sector buying, retail fleeing, geopolitics shaking – who will win the battle for new ATH?

TL;DR:

Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase ($104K-$110.5K) with diminishing momentum (1.7%) amid geopolitical uncertainty and institutional accumulation. Key signals indicate a balance of forces: exchange outflows (-0.5%) and rising hashrate (+5.1%) support supply deficit, however declining retail activity (-7%) and transfer volumes (-17%) indicate participants' wait-and-see position. Options Max Pain at $106K and ADX at 21 level confirm trend formation without clear direction, making sideways movement with $104K support tests the most likely scenario until new macroeconomic catalysts emerge or Middle East conflict resolution.

Macroeconomics Last Week

Priority: High

1. Eurozone Trade Surplus (April 2025): €9.9 billion

   Conclusion: Surplus decreased from €13.6 billion year-over-year and fell from March record of €37.3 billion, mainly due to sharp drop in chemical products surplus after new US tariffs introduction. Exports fell 1.4% y/y (mineral fuels -25.3%, machinery and equipment -5.6%), while imports slightly rose (+0.1%) thanks to chemical purchases (+6.2%) and food products (+6.8%).

2. UMich Consumer Confidence Index (June 2025): 60.5

   Conclusion: First improvement in six months: current situation assessments rose to 63.7 (from 58.9), one-year expectations to 58.4 (from 47.9). One-year inflation expectations fell to 5.1% (from 6.6%), long-term to 4.1%. Despite growth, confidence remains 20% below December levels.

3. US 10-Year Treasury Yield: ≈4.4%

   Conclusion: Recovery caused by Israel's attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and escalating geopolitical risks, but strong demand for $22 billion 30-year bonds softened yield growth. Investors are pricing in two Fed rate cuts in 2025, expecting maintenance of cutting leverage in upcoming meetings.

Priority: Moderate

1. Gold Prices: +1% to $3,432/ounce

   Conclusion: Rally to levels close to April record of $3,500, driven by safe-haven demand due to Middle East escalation and US-China trade uncertainty; soft US inflation data strengthened Fed rate cut expectations.

Next Week

• Geopolitics: further development of Israel-Iran conflict;

• Trade negotiations: US with China and key partners;

• G7 Summit in Canada;

• Central Bank Decisions: Fed, People's Bank of China, Banks of Japan and England, as well as Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia, Philippines and Taiwan — rates expected to remain unchanged;

• Key Data:

  • US: retail sales, industrial production;

  • UK: CPI;

  • Germany: ZEW index;

  • China: industrial production, retail sales;

  • Japan: foreign trade balance.

Strengthening consumer confidence in the US and signs of renewed trade negotiations will serve as positive foundation for risk assets: investors will get additional impulse to buy stocks and corporate bonds, counting on further domestic demand growth and trade barrier reduction. Expectations for two Fed rate cuts this year with moderate PCE inflation create favorable credit environment, which will additionally support riskier market segments.

At the same time, escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East and rising US long bond yields to 4.4% may intensify capital outflows to "safe havens" — gold already showed corresponding response, rising 1%. Weakening eurozone surplus indicates slowing external demand, which could pressure European stocks. Overall, next week markets will balance between "bullish" expectations from domestic macro data and volatility caused by Middle East conflict.

Stock Market Last Week

Priority: High

1. US Stock Futures -1% on Friday

   Conclusion: Threat of Middle East escalation prompted shift to defensive assets: airlines fell 4-5% (American -4.1%, Delta -4.6%, United -4.9%), mega-tech -1-2% (Nvidia -1.4%, Microsoft -0.7%, Amazon -1.8%, Meta -1.4%, Alphabet -1.6%, Tesla -1.0%), while energy and defense rose (Exxon +2.5%, Chevron +2.6%, Lockheed Martin +3.2%). Despite this, indices remained on track for weekly gains.

2. Friday Close: S&P 500 -1.1%, Nasdaq -1.3%, Dow Jones -769 pts

   Conclusion: After Iran's missile strikes in response to Israeli operation, risk appetite sharply fell. Technology and financials showed most significant losses (Nvidia -2.1%, Apple -1.4%, Visa/Mastercard -4%), airlines even deeper, while oil & gas and defense companies found "safe haven" thanks to oil price growth (+7%) and geopolitical risks.

Priority: Moderate

1. Week Results:
   – S&P 500 +0.5%
   – Nasdaq -0.8%
   – Dow Jones -1.5%

   Conclusion: Geopolitics increased volatility: S&P 500 weekly gain softened end-of-week decline, while technology and industrial indices finished in the red.

Conclusions

• Geopolitical shock (Israel strikes and Iran response) strengthened demand for "safe havens" — defense, energy and long-term government bonds.

• Technology and airlines remain most vulnerable to external shocks, reflecting risks of further escalation.

• Overall weekly picture — mixed: despite general overcoming of S&P losses, markets finished the week under pressure, and further dynamics will depend on whether Middle East tensions can be reduced and key macro data releases.

Important News of the Past Week

Priority: High

1. BlackRock's IBIT became fastest ETF: $70 billion AUM in 341 days, outpacing gold ETF GLD 5 times faster.

2. US Senate scheduled final vote on GENIUS Act for June 17, 2025, creating legal framework for stablecoins before transferring bill to House of Representatives.

3. Shopify launched early access to USDC payments on Base via Coinbase, providing instant settlements, cashback bonuses and broader crypto integration in e-commerce.

4. KuCoin opened SEC-approved exchange in Thailand after acquiring ERX, expanding regulated operations and local fiat on/off-ramps.

5. SharpLink Gaming acquired $463 million in ETH, becoming second largest public holder of ethereum reserves after Ethereum Foundation.

Priority: Moderate

1. Metaplanet jumped 22% after announcing plan to raise $5.4 billion to purchase 210,000 BTC by end of 2027, aiming to become second largest corporate holder.

2. Stripe acquired crypto wallet Privy to expand digital asset product suite after $1.1 billion stablecoin platform Bridge deal earlier this year.

3. GameStop increased convertible bond issuance to $2.25 billion to finance corporate initiatives and possible BTC purchases despite recent stock decline.

4. Strategy bought additional 1,045 BTC for $110.2 million, bringing total holdings to 582,000 BTC (~$62 billion) through STRK and STRF preferred stock placements.

Priority: Low

1. Tether CEO called $515 billion valuation "slightly bearish", citing growing bitcoin and gold reserves.

2. Connecticut banned government use of cryptocurrencies and creation of digital reserves, joining states with cautious approach to BTC.

Conclusions

This week institutional interest and regulatory initiatives continued shaping market landscape. Record IBIT growth and US plans for legislatively formalized stablecoin (GENIUS) underscore institutions' and authorities' drive to integrate digital assets into traditional financial mechanisms.

Meanwhile, commercial platforms accelerate crypto payment adoption: Shopify/USDC via Base and SEC-approved KuCoin exchange in Thailand expand usage boundaries. Players like SharpLink and Metaplanet actively build reserve positions, while Stripe and GameStop strengthen infrastructure for further scaling.

Overall, bullish trend prevails, supported by institutional inflows and innovations, but regulatory uncertainty remains key risk factor.

Bitcoin Trading Week Macro Analysis

1. BTC/USD Pair Analysis

Key Weekly Indicators

• Current Price: ≈ $105.5K

• Local High: $110.5K

• Local Low: $104.0K

Trend

This week Bitcoin in BTC-USDT pair fluctuated in $104K–$110.5K corridor. At period start, price rose toward resistance around $110.5K, but at high levels encountered serious supply and reversed downward. In second half of week, pullback to $104K followed, where buyers managed to activate and push rate back to current $105.5K. Trading volumes remained restrained and didn't allow either resistance breakthrough or deep correction development.

Conclusions

• Key Resistance: $110.5K
  Only confident break of this zone with increasing volumes will signal bullish trend resumption and new $115K test.

• Local Support: $104K
  Twice this week exactly this level served as bounce point — its preservation will strengthen foundation and reduce probability of further decline.

• Strong Base Support: $100K
  Break below $100K will create seller pressure and may initiate deeper correction to $95K–$97K area.

2. Bitcoin Price Momentum (30-day)

Over the past week, Bitcoin's 30-day momentum decreased from ≈ 2.5% to ≈ 1.7%, indicating further fading of bullish dynamics. Momentum literally "slowed down" near zero mark with price correction at $104K–$105K levels. Absence of bright macro drivers and short position fixing amid market uncertainty led to indicator being substantially below long-term average (≈ +10%), cementing sideways consolidation trend.

Conclusions

• Momentum below 2% effectively balances supply and demand, making further strong movement unlikely without external catalyst.

• 0%–5% zone remains "neutral band": price will likely trade in narrow $104K–$106K corridor until new news or fundamental stimuli appear.

• Momentum break above 20% with significant volume growth will become unambiguous signal for active rally resumption and $110K–$112K test.

3. Options Analysis

• Max Pain Price: $106,000

• Expiration Date: June 25, 2025

Market Structure

• Call Options Dominance (green bars):
  Most open interest concentrated on strikes above $110K.

  • Peak volumes:

    • $130K (~8M)

    • $127.5K (~7M)

    • $125K (~6M)
      This indicates substantial demand for protection on price movement above current Max Pain.

• Put Options (red bars):
  Main protective bets lie in lower $90K–$97.5K range.

  • Largest volumes:

    • $90K (~6.5M)

    • $92.5K (~4M)

    • $95K (~3.5M)
      Above $97.5K Put volumes rapidly decline (< 1M), indicating moderate bearish protection closer to market.

Comparative Analysis with Previous Week

• Max Pain: remained at $106K level, no shifts.

• Call: volumes on $125K–$130K strikes slightly increased (average growth ~0.5–1M), indicating strengthening bullish interest at highest strikes.

• Put: in lower $90K–$95K zone slight interest decline observed (-0.5–1M), while in $97.5K–$102.5K range Put volumes remained at minimal levels.

Forecast

• Bullish Scenario:
  Price holding above $106K with further Call volume building could lead to $108K–$110K zone test, and on break – movement to $115K+.

• Bearish Scenario:
  $106K break with simultaneous Put volume growth (> 1M in $102K–$104K zone) could return price to $102K–$104K range where main "bear" protection is concentrated.

Bitcoin Network Data Analysis

1. Number of Active Wallets (7d):

• Previous Week: 8,059,984

• This Week: 7,651,303

• Change: 🔴 −5.07%

• Comment: Moderate reduction in active addresses (−5%) indicates part of participants continue holding positions and making transactions less frequently.

2. Network Hashrate:

• Previous Week: 902,662,279,497 EH/s

• This Week: 948,875,942,641 EH/s

• Change: 🟢 +5.12%

• Comment: Hashrate growth (+5.1%) indicates return or expansion of mining capacities after technical breaks, enhancing network security.

3. BTC Exchange Reserves:

• Previous Week: 2,364,327 BTC

• This Week: 2,350,208 BTC

• Change: 🔴 −0.52%

• Comment: Small outflow (−0.5%) continues long-term accumulation trend, reducing volume of coins available for sale on exchanges.

4. Transfer Volume (7d):

• Previous Week: 4,328,015 BTC

• This Week: 3,587,109 BTC

• Change: 🔴 −17.12%

• Comment: Significant transfer volume decline (−17%) indicates temporary lull in on-chain activity, possibly due to awaiting news drivers.

5. Market Capitalization:

• Previous Week: $2,099,782,310,565

• This Week: $2,096,112,987,448

• Change: 🔴 −0.17%

• Comment: Practically stable capitalization with minor correction (−0.2%) reflects balance of buying and selling pressure.

6. Market Price:

• Previous Week: $105,823.87

• This Week: $105,664.83

• Change: 🔴 −0.15%

• Comment: Price remained in narrow range, correcting less than 0.2%, indicating market awaiting new signals.

Conclusions

1. Position consolidation: reduction in active addresses (−5%) and transfer volumes (−17%) indicates accumulation and "waiting" phase by most participants.

2. Mining capacity recovery: hashrate growth (+5.1%) enhances network reliability and reduces centralization risks.

3. Price and capitalization stability: minimal changes in price (−0.15%) and capitalization (−0.17%) demonstrate consolidation at current levels before possible new movement.

4. Long-term accumulation continues: gradual exchange outflow (−0.5%) strengthens foundation for growth potential when external demand drivers appear.

On-Chain Metrics

Bitcoin Heat Macro Phase

From May 22 (local high $111K) to June 5 (local low $101K), Heat Phase Index fluctuated in ≈ 0.45 → 0.39 range, after which it's now at ≈ 0.41.

Heat Phase Index is a composite indicator of Bitcoin market "heating" that combines four key signals: normalized MVRV Z-score (market to realized value ratio), smoothed (SMA-14) aSOPR value (adjusted spent output profit ratio), Z-score of cost-basis difference between long-term and short-term holders (LTH-STH cost-basis) and 10-day moving average of net ETF flows in dollars. Each component is brought to unified scale from 0 to 1 relative to its historical minimum and maximum, then weighted (30% MVRV, 30% aSOPR, 30% delta cost-basis and 10% ETF-flows) and summed - resulting value reflects current accumulation or distribution phase on market "heat" scale.

Current State (June 15, 2025)

May 26–June 5 Range Nuances

1. Peak heating (0.45): coincided with local price high update (~ $111K) — classic fixing signal.

2. Cooling (0.39): occurred in accumulation phase at price around $101K.

3. Recovery to 0.41: indicates demand resumption and average market participant activity.

1. Risks and Invalidation

• Bullish hypothesis invalidation:

  • Index drop again below 0.39 → deepening "cooling" phase and possible medium-term consolidation.

  • Stable Heat Phase growth above 0.45 with price < $106K → false overheating signal without upside continuation.

• Critical price level:

  • Fixed weekly close below $100K with index ≤ 0.39 will change scenario to correction phase.

2. Tactical Plan

1. Buy more at Heat ≤ 0.39 and price $100K–$102K

2. Monitor simultaneous MVRV or aSOPR ±2σ spikes and sharp ETF-flow for emergency adjustments.

Summary

• May 26–June 5 range: 0.45 → 0.39.

• Current level: 0.41 at price ≈ $104K.

• Strategy: holding long, buying more in ≤ 0.39 zone.

• Key levels:

  • Heat ≤ 0.39 / $100K–$102K — additional purchase.

Bitcoin Retail Investor (Volume $0 to $10K by USD) Demand 30D Change

Over the past week, daily Bitcoin transfer volume in $0–10K range (retail investor activity proxy) decreased by ≈ 7% (30-day change), bringing indicator into slight "outflow" zone (red zone). Historically, periods of strong retail demand growth (green peaks +20…+30%) coincided with bullish rally phases, while negative spikes (below −10%) were fixed at lows and reflected capitulation. Current level (~−7%) indicates rather short-term adjustment and partial profit-taking than panic selling - retail remains overall within moderate caution framework amid recent high prices.

Bitcoin Short-Term Holder P&L to Exchanges Sum 24H

This week short-term holders (STH) regularly realized significant losses when transferring bitcoins to exchanges: daily loss peaks reached ≈ 17K BTC at level (~ $105K). This is classic retail investor capitulation. As price recovered above $105K, STH loss wave noticeably weakened (to ≈ −3,200 BTC), indicating panic subsiding. Obviously, current pattern suggests worst capitulation wave is behind, but this doesn't mean it won't repeat with further price decline.

Bitcoin Power of Trend (ADX) 2.0

Over the past week ADX showed steady growth from ≈ 16 (June 8) to ≈ 21 (June 14), crossed 20 mark, indicating market transition from "noise" phase to emerging trend formation phase. Need to clarify that ADX (Average Directional Index) itself shows trend strength without direction indication. In version 2.0, separate signals are added which are currently neutral, but we look at ADX itself and its Signal Line and currently ADX still hasn't exceeded 25–30 limits, meaning market is in trend formation phase. Combined data indicates slight bullish dynamics advantage, but without extreme indicator signs.

Conclusion

Bitcoin finished the week in consolidation phase with moderate bullish signals amid global geopolitical uncertainty: trading in $104K–$110.5K corridor at current price $105.5K, the asset demonstrates momentum fading (30-day momentum dropped to 1.7%), while options Max Pain remained at $106K level, and ADX grew to 21, crossing trend formation threshold but without clear direction. This indicates high probability of continued sideways movement with local pullbacks to support zone at $104K level.

Next Week Forecast

Investment Recommendations: 🟣 HOLD (Neutral)

More details about rating can be found at this link: https://adlerinsight.com/Adler_Insight_Rating.pdf

Good luck in the upcoming trading week!
AAJ

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Disclaimer:

This material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities, digital assets, or other financial instruments. The information presented in this report is considered reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any investment decisions are made by the investor independently, taking into account personal financial circumstances and, if necessary, after consultation with a qualified professional. The author and affiliated parties may hold positions in the assets mentioned in this report. The author and publisher accept no responsibility for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this information.

Risks:

High volatility may lead to sharp fluctuations in value, adversely affecting investors' portfolios. Significant price swings may reduce the attractiveness of BTC to institutional investors, especially in the derivatives segment (futures, options). Potential tightening of regulatory requirements by governments and central banks may restrict access to BTC markets and reduce liquidity. Issues with custodial services, centralized exchanges, and hacking incidents could undermine confidence in the asset and negatively impact liquidity.