Bitcoin Trends – W4 March 2025

Trump’s trade wars, investor flight, and a squeezing crypto market – how will these factors affect BTC’s price in the final week of March?

TL;DR:

A new wave of trade wars has already upended macroeconomic forecasts: mortgage rates have surged, and investors are fleeing U.S. stocks in search of stability. The crypto market is in a holding pattern: miner activity is ramping up while traders brace for a spike in volatility. Discover how these developments will affect BTC’s price next week and why the current correction is merely a breather before a new bullish rally.

Macro Economy Over the Last Week

Priority: High

1. President Donald Trump Signs an Executive Order Imposing Tariffs

• New Tariffs: President Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China:

  • 25% – on goods from Mexico and Canada,

  • 10% – on goods from China.

• Goals and Consequences:

  • The measures are aimed at protecting domestic industries and reducing the trade balance deficit.

  • The imposition of tariffs increases trade tensions and may lead to retaliatory measures from trade partners.

2. Updated Fed Forecasts Following the Tariff Implementation

• Revised Expectations: The Fed maintains interest rates at 4.25–4.50% and has published new forecasts reflecting the impact of the widespread tariff implementation.

• Changes in the Forecasts:

  • It was initially expected that interest rates would gradually decline in 2025 to manage inflation without increasing unemployment.

  • The new tariffs have led to more pessimistic forecasts: a slowdown in economic growth, higher inflation, and increased unemployment are anticipated.

• Risks: The emergence of additional sources of inflationary pressure complicates the possibility of lowering rates, increasing the risk of stagflation.

Priority: Medium

1. Rise in Mortgage Interest Rates

• Mortgage Rates: The average rate on 30-year mortgages has risen to 6.80% from 6.63% the previous week, according to data from government-sponsored enterprise Freddie Mac.

• Reasons for the Increase: The rise in rates is linked to increasing inflationary pressures and the Fed's attempts to stabilize the economy amid global uncertainty.

• Market Impact: Higher rates may reduce demand in the housing market and increase the burden on borrowers, which will affect the dynamics of the real estate market.

2. Shift in Investment Strategies in Response to Geopolitical Risks

• Portfolio Diversification: Investors who were previously focused on American stocks have started reallocating assets towards European and Asian markets.

• Drivers of the Shift:

  • Concerns over the overvaluation of the American market.

  • The intensification of trade wars and isolationist tendencies in U.S. foreign policy.

  • Positive economic stimuli and increased defense spending in Europe, which have boosted confidence in international assets.

• Consequences: Some investors have completely abandoned American stocks in favor of more stable international markets, despite the associated complexities and risks.

Conclusions on the Impact of Macro Events on Bitcoin

• Increased Trade Tensions:
  The imposition of tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China increases geopolitical uncertainty. Such an environment may reduce investors’ appetite for risky assets, including Bitcoin.

• Pessimistic Fed Forecasts and the Risk of Stagflation:
  The revised economic expectations following the tariffs indicate a possible slowdown in growth alongside rising inflation. Such a scenario increases uncertainty and may enhance Bitcoin’s volatility, as investors adjust their strategies in a stagflation risk environment.

• Shift in Investment Strategies:
  The reallocation towards European and Asian markets reflects declining confidence in the American market. This may change the correlation of Bitcoin with traditional assets, affecting its liquidity and volatility.

• Overall Conclusion:
  The combination of macroeconomic factors—heightened trade conflicts, rising interest rates, pessimistic Fed forecasts, and shifting investment strategies—creates an ambiguous impact on Bitcoin. In the short term, increased volatility and a decline in speculative demand are expected.

Upcoming Events

Next week, investors should monitor speeches by representatives of the U.S. Federal Reserve, as well as the release of key economic data: personal income and expenditure data, PCE price indexes, S&P Global PMI indexes, and final Q4 GDP growth figures. Updates in the real estate market, including data on new home sales and closed transactions, will also be in focus.

Important News of the Past Week

Priority: High

1. Strategy Increases the Supply of STRF Shares

   Conclusion: Increasing the share supply to purchase additional Bitcoins demonstrates the company's confidence in further expansion and its strategic approach to accumulating digital assets, which may contribute to reaching 500,000 BTC in assets.

2. Stablecoin Market Capitalization Surpasses $230 Billion

   Conclusion: The growth in stablecoin market capitalization, driven by institutional demand and Trump's initiatives to introduce favorable legislation, reflects the strengthening stability and recognition of digital assets in the market.

3. Senate Hearings on Paul Atkins’ Nomination for SEC Chairman

   Conclusion: The hearings indicate potential changes in the regulatory approach to cryptocurrencies, which may further impact investment activity and industry development.

4. U.S. Treasury Lifts Sanctions on Tornado Cash

   Conclusion: The lifting of sanctions following a court ruling underscores a reconsideration of regulatory measures concerning crypto mixers and may set a new tone in the approach to digital asset control.

5. SEC Clarifies the Status of Proof-of-Work Mining

   Conclusion: The new clarification removes legal uncertainty for miners, allowing mining without obtaining a special permit, thereby stimulating infrastructure development in the sector.

6. Xapo Bank Offers BTC-Backed Loans

   Conclusion: The launch of Bitcoin-backed lending demonstrates the integration of cryptocurrencies into the banking system.

Xapo Bank is a hybrid of a traditional bank and a crypto platform, licensed as a full-service bank in Gibraltar. It holds a banking license and operates under the supervision of the Gibraltar Financial Services Commission (GFSC).

7. Acting SEC Chairman Orders a Review of Cryptocurrency Custody Rules

   Conclusion: Revising the rules for the custody of digital assets could lead to changes in security and preservation requirements for cryptocurrencies, which is important for all market participants.

8. Goldman Sachs Recognizes Cryptocurrency for the First Time in a Shareholder Letter

   Conclusion: Recognition of cryptocurrency by one of the leading financial companies points to the growing influence of digital assets and awareness of potential risks, which may further contribute to institutional acceptance.

9. IMF Updates Statistical Standards to Include Digital Assets

   Conclusion: Including Bitcoin in international statistical methodologies increases the transparency of cross-border transactions and highlights the significance of digital assets on a global scale.

In the seventh edition of the "Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual" (BPM7), Bitcoin and similar cryptocurrencies are classified as non-produced non-financial assets, similar to the classification of gold or land.

This update means that cross-border Bitcoin transactions will be accounted for similarly to real estate or gold transactions. Although the IMF has acknowledged Bitcoin in its statistical system, it has not designated it as "de facto digital gold." Thus, the IMF has adapted its statistical methodology to account for digital assets without equating Bitcoin to gold in its official documents.

Priority: Moderate

1. Metaplanet Appoints Eric Trump to Its Advisory Board

   Conclusion: The appointment of Trump’s son as an advisor indicates the company’s effort to strengthen its position in the digital asset management market through bond issuance.

2. Liquidation of Two 21Shares Futures ETFs

   Conclusion: The discontinuation of Bitcoin and Ether futures ETFs during a market downturn indicates a shift in investor interest and may signal a need to reassess strategies in the futures ETF sector.

3. World Liberty Financial Raises $590 Million Through a Token Sale

   Conclusion: The successful capital raise through a token sale demonstrates a high level of confidence from accredited investors and active participation in the digital finance sector.

News Conclusions on the Impact on Bitcoin

This week shows moderate activity in both the corporate and regulatory sectors. Players such as Strategy and Metaplanet continue to accumulate Bitcoin, albeit in relatively low volumes. At the same time, initiatives to update regulatory norms—including revising digital asset custody rules and holding hearings for the SEC chair nomination—indicate potential changes in the legal environment that may affect the market's future development.

A significant event was the recognition of cryptocurrency by Goldman Sachs and the inclusion of digital assets in the IMF methodologies, which underscores the growing institutional and international recognition of crypto assets. The crypto market continues to adapt and integrate into the global financial system despite ongoing macroeconomic and regulatory challenges.

Bitcoin Trading Week Macro Analysis

1. BTC/USD Pair Analysis

• Current Price: ~$84.3K

• Local Low: $81.1K

• Local High: $87.5K

• Trend: At the beginning of the trading week, there was an attempt at a rise, but upon reaching the $87.53 level, a pullback occurred. In recent days, consolidation has been observed in the $84K-$85K range due to reduced volatility during the weekend, which may lead to market compression.

• Volumes: There was a slight increase in volume at local lows and during the rise, but compared to March trading volumes, the market appears passive.

Conclusions:

• The $87.5K level acts as the nearest resistance.

• $81.19K is the level of local support.

• $76.71K remains the support level for the current correction phase.

• Consolidation in the $84K-$85K range indicates a possible price breakout.

2. Options Analysis

• Max Pain Price: $90K.

• Expiration Date: March 28, 2025.

Market Structure:

• Predominance of Call Options: Above the $90,000 level, the cumulative intrinsic value of Call options (green bars) increases. This indicates a greater interest from option buyers in Bitcoin rising above the $90,000 mark. The highest concentration of Call options and the growth in intrinsic value is observed above $120,000, indicating strong bullish expectations among traders.

• Put Options: (red bars) are predominantly concentrated below the current price and diminish as the price approaches the Max Pain level ($90,000). This suggests a weak expectation for a drop below current levels among traders or relatively lower put-buying activity.

1. Network Hashrate:

• Last Week: 735,897,636,161 EH/s

• Current Week: 836,247,313,820 EH/s

• Change: 🟢 +13.64%

• Comment: A significant increase in hashrate indicates heightened miner activity and confidence in Bitcoin mining prospects.

2. Miner Fees:

• Last Week: $3,048,193

• Current Week: $3,270,115

• Change: 🟢 +7.28%

• Comment: The rise in miner fees indicates more intense competition for transactions. Despite the overall decline in miner income since ATH, the current increase appears significant; however, in reality, it is minimal as incomes have dropped in recent months.

3. Number of Active Wallets:

• Last Week: 9,099,973

• Current Week: 7,934,294

• Change: 🔴 -12.81%

• Comment: A significant decline in wallet activity may indicate a temporary reduction in user engagement amid price consolidation, essentially reflecting a HODL stance among players.

4. BTC Exchange Reserves:

• Last Week: 2,454,666 BTC

• Current Week: 2,455,784 BTC

• Change: 🟢 +0.05%

• Comment: Nearly stable BTC reserves on exchanges indicate a neutral supply dynamic; there is no pronounced buying or selling pressure.

5. Market Price:

• Last Week: $83,700.93

• Current Week: $84,290.46

• Change: 🟢 +0.70%

• Comment: A slight increase in Bitcoin's price confirms the consolidation phase.

6. Transfer Volume:

• Last Week: 4,349,525 BTC

• Current Week: 3,027,840 BTC

• Change: 🔴 -30.39%

• Comment: A significant drop in Bitcoin transfer volumes may reflect a decline in overall trader and investor activity. This signals a possible shift to a wait-and-see strategy among players.

7. Market Capitalization:

• Last Week: $1,674,301,914,732

• Current Week: $1,663,494,995,578

• Change: 🔴 -0.65%

• Comment: A slight decrease in market capitalization indicates minimal market volatility and supports the current price consolidation scenario.

Final Conclusions for the Week:

• Increased Miner Activity: The significant rise in hashrate and fees indicates a restoration of miner confidence.

• Declining User Activity: The noticeable drop in the number of active wallets and transfer volumes suggests reduced investor activity, indicating a shift towards a HODL strategy.

• Stability in Price Range: Bitcoin continues to consolidate around ~$84,000 without marked movements.

  

  On-Chain Metrics

  Bitcoin: Investor Price Model

  

  In this cycle, the market has entered overheated territory twice (blue circles), unlike in 2021 when clear sell signals (red dots) were triggered; currently, not a single sell signal has been recorded. At the moment, the price has returned to average levels.

  The recovery of the macro economy, Fed rhetoric, and clearer signals from the Trump team could trigger a new rally. I consider the current correction as a temporary movement within a broader bullish cycle. In other words, the Current Correction appears as a healthy pause within a bullish cycle, not the beginning of a bearish trend.

  The model is based on: Realized Cap, Thermo Cap, Investor Price, and Bitcoin Supply.

  Cumulative Value Days Destroyed - Bottom & Top

  

  This model marks periods when experienced players begin actively selling their coins (red circles). In the past, these zones almost perfectly coincided with local and cyclic peaks. In the current cycle, there has been only one signal so far—at the $72K level.

  Accessing Tops (black line). This line indicates a "profit-taking zone" for long-term participants. Historically, a breach of this line led to increased sell-offs and the formation of peaks. Given the current market structure, we can expect that upon crossing Accessing Tops ($123K), experienced investors may wish to lock in profits, which would create selling pressure on the price.

  Accumulating Phase 1 & 2 (dashed lines) reflect periods when position building occurred. The current cycle is still in a growth phase, confirmed by the weak activity of long-term sellers. Combining the conclusions with the previous model (Investor Price Model) suggests that we are in a local correction, after which another growth phase may follow—possibly toward the final values of this cycle.

  You can find this model from analyst BinhDang on the CryptoQuant website.

  

  Conclusion

  Amid President Donald Trump’s imposition of new tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China, geopolitical uncertainty has increased, reducing investor interest in risky assets such as Bitcoin. The Fed maintained current interest rates but revised forecasts toward a slowdown in economic growth, rising inflation, and the risk of stagflation, thereby increasing the volatility of the cryptocurrency market.

  The rise in mortgage rates to 6.80% reflects mounting inflationary pressure, potentially slowing down the real estate market and the economy as a whole. Simultaneously, there is a reallocation of investment assets from the American market to European and Asian markets due to fears of trade conflicts and overvaluation of American assets.

  In the crypto market, moderate activity is noted: companies such as Strategy continue to accumulate Bitcoin, albeit in small volumes. The regulatory environment is becoming clearer, and the recognition of cryptocurrency by Goldman Sachs along with the inclusion of digital assets in the IMF standards are contributing to further institutional acceptance of Bitcoin.

  Bitcoin market data shows increased miner activity, but a decline in user activity, indicating that investors are shifting towards a HODL strategy.

  On-chain metrics confirm that the current correction is a healthy pause within an ongoing bullish cycle. Thus, despite short-term macro challenges and increased volatility, the market remains bullish. With the predominance of call options and market compression, we can expect an increase in bullish volatility next week.

Forecast

Target Price: $130,000 (90-day period)
Projected Total Return: 53.5%
Investment Recommendation: 🟢 OUTPERFORM (Moderate Buy)

More details on the rating can be found at this link: https://adlerinsight.com/Adler_Insight_Rating.pdf

Good luck in the upcoming trading week!
AAJ

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Disclaimer:

This material has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to buy or sell any securities, digital assets, or other financial instruments. The information presented in this report is considered reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Any investment decisions are made by the investor independently, taking into account personal financial circumstances and, if necessary, after consultation with a qualified professional. The author and affiliated parties may hold positions in the assets mentioned in this report. The author and publisher accept no responsibility for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of this information.

Risks:

High volatility may lead to sharp fluctuations in value, adversely affecting investors' portfolios. Significant price swings may reduce the attractiveness of BTC to institutional investors, especially in the derivatives segment (futures, options). Potential tightening of regulatory requirements by governments and central banks may restrict access to BTC markets and reduce liquidity. Issues with custodial services, centralized exchanges, and hacking incidents could undermine confidence in the asset and negatively impact liquidity.