Exchange Flow Dynamics

SQL of the Week 007

Intro

Exchange Flow is the pulse of supply on exchanges. When coins enter exchanges, the market receives potential fuel for sell-pressure. When coins leave exchanges - supply “contracts”, and the market more often receives risk-on support.

The problem is that most analysts:

• either look only at inflow or outflow separately,

• or look at “netflow” without normalization and almost no one converts flows into a regime indicator that can be matched with future returns and used for risk management.

In this educational issue of SQL of the Week you will receive a production-ready Exchange Flow Dynamics model with the following functionality:

✅ Daily exchange inflow / outflow / netflow across all major exchanges (USD)
✅ 7-day smoothing + conversion of netflow to Flow Pressure (where “+” = bullish)
✅ 90-day z-score on Flow Pressure → regimes (Strong/Neutral/Extreme)
✅ Backtest: forward BTC returns at 7 / 14 / 30 days + regime table (as in previous issues)
✅ Framework on how to use EFD together with OI Momentum (SQL #004) and Funding Cycles (SQL #005)