Weekly Engine #103

W1 Jul 2026

GM/GN.

As of early July 2026, the Bitcoin market has entered the late stage of the bear cycle. In the latest issue of Adler AM, I broke down an early bottom signal based on the Net UTXO Supply metric.

Historically, signals like this have appeared near cycle lows, which is clearly visible on the chart in the green lines. But this signal matters not as a standalone confirmation of a bottom, but as an addition to the other Core metrics we cover in Weekly Engine.

Also this week, the daily ETF outflow streak was broken, but the structural stress in the segment has still not been lifted. Before that, the cumulative outflow during the streak exceeded $2.7 billion, and June became the worst month for Bitcoin ETFs since launch, closing with net outflows of $4.5 billion. At the same time, IBIT from BlackRock continues to show persistent outflows and has now closed its eighth straight week in the red. In essence, this means that even after a local pause in the selloff, there is still no sign of a sustainable reversal in ETF demand - the pressure remains systemic, not episodic.

On the on-chain side, the basic LTH picture remains unchanged. Long-term holders continue to hold a record share of supply, while LTH MVRV remains around three-year lows. This means that old money has not capitulated and continues to accumulate supply. That is exactly what makes the current phase look like the late stage of the bear cycle, where price weakens, holder margins are compressed, but the strongest cohorts still have not thrown their coins onto the market.

🔸

Now to the main point: let’s move on to the weekly breakdown. What the market is showing, which signals have triggered, which new triggers have appeared, and what verdict the Weekly Engine is giving on Bitcoin right now.

Below is the full breakdown.