Weekly Engine #104

W2 Jul 2026

GM/GN.

In Friday’s Adler AM #120, I introduced a new model - the Bitcoin STH Realized Pressure Model. The brief received strong coverage from major media outlets and drew a lot of positive feedback from analysts. Let’s zoom in and take a closer look at how the model works.

The metric compares the strength of realized buying and selling pressure among short-term holders. In a bear market, the model acts as a countertrend indicator: buyers become more active near local lows, while sellers become more active near local highs.

Over the past 24 hours, the model has not shown a regime change, but it has cooled slightly. In the latest hourly reading, the Buy Pressure Score stands at 28.57 versus 28.98 a day earlier, while the Sell Pressure Score is 22.62 versus 22.68. Both metrics edged lower, but buyers still hold a 5.94 percentage-point lead.

There was also a brief demand-side impulse during the day: the Buy Pressure Score rose to 29.35 while the Sell Pressure Score fell to 21.81. That imbalance later narrowed. The model now shows a moderate cooling in buying pressure, while buyers retain the overall advantage.

Conditions in the ETF market improved slightly, but the broader picture remains weak. After a prolonged eight-week streak of outflows, the market finally recorded a modest net inflow of +$197.4M. That is clearly not enough to confirm a full trend reversal.

30-day momentum remains deeply negative at -$4.73B, while cumulative flow continues to decline from its $62B peak toward $51B. In other words, flows have improved in the short term, but the data still does not show a sustained return of institutional demand.

Next week is likely to be data-heavy. Investors will be watching developments in the Middle East following another escalation in the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, which has renewed concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply. In the U.S., the focus will be on earnings from the largest banks, remarks from Fed Chair Warsh, the June Consumer Price Index, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, retail sales data, and housing market figures.

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Now to the main point: the weekly market breakdown. What is the market showing, which signals have been triggered, which new catalysts have emerged, and what verdict does the Weekly Engine give on Bitcoin right now?

Below is the full analysis.