Weekly Engine #109

Aug 10-16, 2026

GM/GN.

In Friday’s Adler AM, I explained that the network is recovering faster than holder profitability. But these data alone cannot tell us what is driving the movement of coins - accumulation, capitulation, or returning demand.

The Bitcoin UTXOs in Profit (%) metric shows the share of UTXOs whose current market price is above the price at which they last moved. Over the past month, the reading has risen from 48% to 53%.

However, this cannot yet be called a full recovery. 53% is still a deep-stress level, well below the 365-day average. Despite the rebound, almost half of all UTXOs remain at a loss.

Another point matters: a rising share of profitable UTXOs does not confirm new demand on its own. The metric can rise simply because the price moves back above levels where coins previously changed hands. The move from 48% to 53% therefore points primarily to easing pressure on holders, not a confirmed regime change.

A full recovery signal would require a further increase in the share of profitable UTXOs alongside sustained growth in network activity and demand. The market has moved away from a local extreme, but supply conditions remain far from normal.

Another factor complicates the picture. After the Coldcard hack, LTH Supply fell by 134.8K BTC. A significant volume of old coins moved and mechanically stopped being counted as long-term supply.

The decline in LTH Supply therefore cannot automatically be interpreted as distribution or selling by long-term holders - some of the movement was related to funds being transferred after the incident.

This also matters when interpreting the recovery in UTXOs in Profit. Activity among old coins and changes in supply structure can distort familiar signals. For now, the data point more toward a restructuring of supply after a major stress event than confirmation of new demand or capitulation.

This is where the most important part begins.

The market looks better than it did a month ago, but that is not enough to confirm a reversal. The main question we now need to answer is whether there is enough confirmation to open a new Bitcoin position.

Let’s examine the data in detail and see what Weekly Engine shows this week. It combines on-chain data, liquidity, macro conditions, exchange flows, and risk signals into a single decision rather than relying on one or two metrics.

What changed this week, which new triggers appeared, and what verdict does Weekly Engine give for Bitcoin right now?