Weekly Engine #85

W4.2 February 2026

GM/GN.

Oil prices may rise when markets reopen Sunday evening following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, which have heightened Middle East tensions and raised the risk of disruptions to global energy supplies.

Bitcoin reacted relatively calmly to the event: the leading cryptocurrency briefly dipped to $63K before quickly recovering and is now trading around $67K. The nearest resistance is at the STH 1W-1M Realized Price - approximately $70K.

This week we finalized the WEEKLY ENGINE Bitcoin Strategy Backtest, and the results are genuinely impressive.

Portfolio Growth

$1,000 initial capital deployed on 2015-04-05 at $259.74 (BUY signal week close). Both strategies start from the same price. HODL holds BTC continuously, BUY/EXIT exits on EXIT signal and re-enters on BUY.

Performance Summary

Head-to-head comparison. Both strategies start from $1,000 on 2015-04-05 at $259.74. BUY/EXIT outperforms by avoiding the 2018 and 2022 bear markets while compounding the full bull cycle gains.

Execution History

Complete trade log. 3 full cycles completed. Currently in cash since October 2025 EXIT at $114,788.

CAGR 117.2% vs 66.3% This is a massive difference in real money over a long horizon. Over 10 years, a gap of this size in annualized returns translates into a portfolio that diverges by nearly 18x ($4.85M vs $262K). In traditional finance, even +5 pp per year is considered an outstanding result - here the gap is +50.9 pp.

Max Drawdown -54.7% vs -82.9% This is arguably the most important metric from a practical standpoint. An 82.9% drawdown psychologically destroys most investors - very few can genuinely hold through such a decline without panic selling. A 54.7% drawdown is also painful, but fundamentally different in nature: it is not a 1.5-2 year bear market, but shorter volatility within an active position.

Sharpe 1.63 vs 1.09 A difference of +0.54 is statistically significant. A Sharpe above 1.0 for HODL is already considered a strong result for any asset. A Sharpe of 1.63 for BUY/EXIT means substantially higher return per unit of risk taken. In the hedge fund industry, strategies with Sharpe 1.5+ are considered top-tier.

Key Caveat This is a backtest on historical data starting from 2015, covering only three complete market cycles. In practice, this represents three key trades, which is a statistically small sample. The results look impressive, but overfitting risk must be considered when interpreting the numbers. This is why all WEEKLY ENGINE signals go through a human review stage, which reduces the probability of interpretation errors.

One additional factor not captured in the Backtest - deploying capital during bear cycles rather than holding cash. During periods out of the market, capital could have earned ~4-5% annually, whereas in the model it sat as a neutral asset. This potentially improves the strategy’s final results, since cash during phases C1->C2 and C2->C3 could have continued working.

Where to Hold Cash During a Bear Market (2026)

Smart money does not trade on news. It enters when the market is broken and exits when growth feels endless. Weekly Engine tracks exactly that moment - through on-chain data, macro signals, and derivatives simultaneously.

Three cycles. Three precise reversals.
The next signal is inside. 👇