Weekly Engine #87

W2 March 2026

GM/GN.

Today we published a Bitcoin price forecast model for 2026-2031. This is essentially a five-year price target for BTC, based on a power law model adjusted for the structural compression that occurs after each halving.

The chart is available here: https://axeladlerjr.com/bitcoin-price-forecast/ It updates 4 times a day, so I recommend bookmarking the page to always have current price targets for the coming years.

This week the first issue of ☕️ Adler AM ⚡️ Extra was published, in which I analyzed Bitcoin LTH Realized Supply. The metric remains at its maximum for this point in the cycle, and the structure increasingly resembles the late 2016 phase - when long-term holders still had room to accumulate. But the signals are mixed: Z-Score already reached 5.36 and pulled back to 2.66, the metric declined 5.5% from its peak, ROC 30d slowed to +7.6%. The next 30-60 days will give the answer - is this a pause before a new accumulation wave or the beginning of final redistribution. Recommended reading.

Friday’s Adler AM issue featured an update to the Bitcoin Sell-side Risk Ratio model - it is now adaptive. Currently, selling pressure in the market has dropped approximately 6x below the cyclical norm, which remains a generally positive signal for Bitcoin. The model shows more precise data compared to other metrics used in the Weekly Engine.

In connection with this, we updated our Core product and added this model to the main analytical layer for more accurate identification of panic selling phases and market stress. In the example below, the Weekly Engine already records a panic selling phase, but the stress label is not yet active. Once it activates, it will mean the market has transitioned from a panic phase to a stress phase and is beginning to digest the consequences of a large volume of panic selling.

Once again, a reminder that I have opened the 💬 Substack chat. Premium subscribers can now ask market questions directly in 24/7 mode. I consider this an important addition to the analytics, because at any moment you can quickly clarify the current situation, ask a question about the Weekly Engine, or get additional market context without waiting for the next issue.

Below is the final compilation of all weekly signals within the Weekly Engine: what has been confirmed, where risks remain, and what signal the updated system provides for the coming week in today’s Adler Insight Report #87.