Weekly Engine #89

W4 March 2026

GM/GN.

The main event of this week - the slow LTH SOPR (SMA-30d) dropped below 1.0 and is holding in the loss zone. This is one of the key signals of the current phase: long-term holders are on average already realizing sales below their cost basis, and such regimes appeared during deeper and more prolonged bearish market segments, which is very clearly visible on the chart below.

An important detail here is that LTH Net Position Change remains positive. That is, the cohort continues to accumulate, but internal tension has already emerged within it: some coins are being sold at a loss. It is precisely this combination that makes the current structure particularly fragile - this is not yet a full capitulation, but already an obvious signal that the resilience of accumulation is beginning to weaken.

In Friday's Adler AM I analyzed in detail why this shift may be an early warning of the market transitioning into a deeper bearish phase.

This week we implemented Substack subscription-based authentication for the terminal. Access to the terminal will be open exclusively to paid Adler Insight Diamond Premium subscribers. No separate registration will be required: simply enter the email address associated with the subscription, receive a one-time access code, and log in without any extra steps. As long as the subscription is active, access to the terminal will be maintained.

Next week we plan to deploy the terminal on test servers and conduct full testing. After completing this stage we will begin preparing the application for release.

That is all the news for today - let us move on to the main part: the full assembly of all key signals of the week inside the updated Weekly Engine.

In today’s issue I will show what the market has already confirmed at the structural level, where the main vulnerabilities remain, and why the apparent stability right now may be deceptive. We will analyze which signals genuinely strengthen the recovery scenario, and which ones remain merely a temporary respite within a more fragile construction.

And most importantly - we will look at what final signal the system gives for next week after reassembling all layers: where the line runs between a working bullish scenario and a zone where the risk of a new breakdown becomes dominant again.