Weekly Engine #91

W2 Apr 2026

GM/GN.

In issue 142 of ADLER AM I covered the Structural Layer and the overall market situation. The current correction still looks noticeably milder than the more severe bear phases of 2017-18 and 2021-22 at a comparable stage of the cycle. At the same time, on its own it still does not provide grounds to claim that a bottom has already formed.

At a comparable point in time, the drawdown was -54% in the 2021-22 cycle and -64% in the 2017-18 cycle. For the 2013-15 cycle the comparable figure was -43%. In other words, current dynamics remain closer to a more moderate scenario than to a deep capitulation phase.

A few words about the terminal, which launched this Wednesday. Before using it, two things are important to understand.

First, the terminal is not a BUY/SELL button. Its purpose is to show how high market quality currently is for taking capital risk.

Second, the terminal is built on the Weekly Engine, which is designed to identify market cycles. Because of this, the system has one hard rule aimed at capital preservation: in a bear market the terminal blocks opening long positions, and in a bull market - opening short positions.

As for further development, we will of course continue improving the algorithms, adding new useful dashboards and expanding the analytical capabilities of the system, but complex and truly innovative solutions take time - be patient, we are going through this path together with you.

This Wednesday the next major update to version 1.6 is planned, within which we will present a fully reworked RISK ON/OFF module. It now works significantly more accurately than all previous models and includes an LLM layer that interprets the current market environment.

I think this is truly the best and most accurate RISK ON/OFF algorithm on the market, because the model now evaluates not only individual indices but also global markets.

That is all for the news today - let us move on to the main part. What will 7 layers of data show and what verdict will the Weekly Engine deliver this week. We will break down what has deteriorated and is already taking on a systemic character, which signals remain unconfirmed, and how to ultimately interpret the current market situation.