Weekly Engine #96

W3 May 2026

GM/GN.

On Friday, in Adler AM 170, I broke down the current market structure in detail and the pressure forming around the $82K zone. Bitcoin approached this level three times and pulled back three times: each time, STH-SOPR rose to the 1.0 mark and rolled over - short-term holders are using every rally to exit, not to hold positions.

This is not a random technical pattern, but a mechanism: resistance at $82K, where the 200D SMA sits, is supported not only technically but also behaviorally. Until STH-SOPR SMA(7) holds above 1.0 for several consecutive days and price delivers a confident daily close above the 200D SMA, every bounce remains a candidate for selling.

US stocks ended Friday’s session lower amid rising concerns around the conflict with Iran: the risk of further energy price growth increases inflationary pressure and raises the probability that rates will stay higher for longer than expected. The S&P 500 lost 1.2%, the Nasdaq fell 1.5%, and the Dow Jones dropped 537 points.

WTI futures gained more than 4%, closing near $106 per barrel. The Strait of Hormuz effectively remains closed, which continues to support concerns over global oil supply.

The yield on 10-year US Treasuries rose toward 4.6%, setting a new yearly high. The geopolitical premium remains priced in: Iran's latest proposal was rejected, and the Trump-Xi summit ended without meaningful agreements. Against this backdrop, the market began pricing a higher risk that the Fed will be forced to keep rates higher for longer than previously expected.

This week, I added the Bitcoin Rainbow Chart, adjusted for volatility. Unlike the classic version, where the width of the bands stays fixed regardless of the cycle, this model adapts the ranges to the actual volatility of each halving era: when the market is calmer, the bands compress; when it is more turbulent, they expand.

This makes the signal more honest: the same price level can mean different regimes in different cycles.

Also this week, the morning brief became available in podcast format on all major streaming platforms - a live discussion around the same metrics: market structure, key levels, and what to watch today. You can subscribe and listen here.

We have dealt with the news - now let’s move to the main point. What verdict did Weekly Engine deliver this week?

The market is facing a key question: is this a confirmed recovery or a strong bounce inside an unfinished bear structure? The answer is not obvious, and one model is not enough here.

In the new issue - a full breakdown of changes across layers L1-L7 versus last week: where the structure really strengthened, what continues to press from above, what new constraints appeared, and what allowed this mini-rally to happen at all.

Seven layers. One conclusion. Let’s break it down. 👇