Weekly Engine #102

W4 Jun 2026

GM/GN.

FUD around Strategy Inc. (MSTR) remains in the market: this week, the company’s mNAV closed below 1 for the first time in its history.

The drop in mNAV is a break in the market premium attached to Strategy’s business model. In essence, the market is no longer willing to pay more for MSTR than the value of its Bitcoin reserve. This does not mean the company is facing an immediate collapse, but it does mean that raising new capital to buy BTC, especially through common stock issuance, has now become more difficult.

So the main question now is whether Strategy can service its dividend obligations and continue raising new capital without selling BTC.

I wrote in more detail about the reasons behind this shift and the key risks for Strategy in the previous issue of Weekly Engine #101 and in Adler AM issue 199: Strategy (MSTR) is down 78% from its peak.

This week, I published a corporate report for institutional investors on the state of the Bitcoin market at the end of June 2026. It breaks down the market's transition into a structural stress regime: localized capitulation among short-term holders, deteriorating liquidity, negative new capital inflows, key valuation and support levels, and the weakening of Strategy (MSTR) as the main corporate proxy for Bitcoin. If you work in the financial sector, you are most likely familiar with this type of report. I deliberately used this format to describe the Bitcoin market in a language professional investors understand.

I also recommend actively tracking the Bitcoin Realized Price Bands chart. It shows where the current Bitcoin price sits relative to realized price and its key multiples, in other words, relative to the average cost basis of coins held by market participants. In practice, it is one of the most useful reference points for judging whether the market is in an overheated zone, a fair value zone, or a structural stress zone, and also how close price is to levels that in past cycles acted as support, resistance, or the final capitulation zone.

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Now for the main part: we move to the weekly breakdown. What is the market showing, which signals have triggered, which new triggers have appeared, and what verdict does Weekly Engine give on Bitcoin right now.

Below is the full breakdown.