We cover Microsoft’s potential Bitcoin investment, its impact on institutional interest, and analyze STH/LTH NAV Premiums. Plus, BTC price trends with key support/resistance levels.
Question: as you describe the different cohorts and their premium to NAV, MVRV kept coming to mind. What, if any, difference are there between NAV Premiums and MVRV?
In essence, the only difference is that STH NAV Premium and STH MVRV describe similar concepts, but in different forms. The main distinction is that STH NAV Premium expresses the difference between STH market value and realized value as a percentage, while STH MVRV is simply the ratio of market value to realized value, in absolute terms. Personally, I find NAV Premium more intuitive, as it is a recognized standard in financial analysis.
Thanks, Axel, for this analysis, and particularly the relevant institutional holdings. In your estimation, how important to the November-December BTC price evolution is the election outcome compared to the MSFT vote? If, for example, Trump lost, might that trigger significant selling before we get to the December corporate vote??
Thank you for an interesting question. Undoubtedly, the elections are a stronger trigger for Bitcoin. The outcome could impact the macroeconomic landscape and, consequently, Bitcoin. If Trump loses, there may be short-term selling due to concerns over regulatory changes and overall market volatility. However, in the long term, the sustained interest from major financial companies and their active promotion of Bitcoin as a protective asset indicates strong confidence in its potential, even if short-term negative volatility persists.
Great insights.
Question: as you describe the different cohorts and their premium to NAV, MVRV kept coming to mind. What, if any, difference are there between NAV Premiums and MVRV?
Thank you.
In essence, the only difference is that STH NAV Premium and STH MVRV describe similar concepts, but in different forms. The main distinction is that STH NAV Premium expresses the difference between STH market value and realized value as a percentage, while STH MVRV is simply the ratio of market value to realized value, in absolute terms. Personally, I find NAV Premium more intuitive, as it is a recognized standard in financial analysis.
Thanks, Axel, for this analysis, and particularly the relevant institutional holdings. In your estimation, how important to the November-December BTC price evolution is the election outcome compared to the MSFT vote? If, for example, Trump lost, might that trigger significant selling before we get to the December corporate vote??
Thank you for an interesting question. Undoubtedly, the elections are a stronger trigger for Bitcoin. The outcome could impact the macroeconomic landscape and, consequently, Bitcoin. If Trump loses, there may be short-term selling due to concerns over regulatory changes and overall market volatility. However, in the long term, the sustained interest from major financial companies and their active promotion of Bitcoin as a protective asset indicates strong confidence in its potential, even if short-term negative volatility persists.